RE: Are Most Cryptocurrencies Doomed to Collapse — because they’re “ICO-issued”?

[steemdoc]

Interesting stuff. Thank you for the time and effort.
What is the current impression of a "regulated exchange". I assume Gemini (a bank) and Bittrex (US based embracer of rules) count, but what about Polo or new kids like wings?
As a collective, where do we move if BTC is in trouble and gold sees a major pump with a crypto armageddon like the OP depicts?
This is the prepper portion of the comments section.

Comments

[anonymint]

Peruse some of my recent writings else where, and hope you can see I do not expect a crypto Armageddon for proof-of-work issued coins as a result of this ICO regulation issue.

what about Polo or new kids

If they’re not requiring strict KYC, they will probably end up like BTC-e and Mt. Gox. Lots of bad reports about Polo. I experienced it myself, Polo trades against its own users.

where do we move if BTC is in trouble and gold sees a major pump

Per my prior blogs, I’m still expecting the possibility of BTC-SegWit collapse with a BCH moonshot. Might not happen, but it might happen.

You can hang on to a safe proof-of-work option such as BCH, LTC, or XMR in a private wallet (not on an exchange). When we get more clarity on BTC, there might be a “real BTC” (Satoshi’s protocol unmodified) to hang on to. If my project has reached launch, you can park some funds there if you want.

Note I don’t think all the more muddled cases of “ICO-issued” equivalents tokens such as ETH, STEEM, DASH, NEM will necessarily be regulated immediately. I think first regulators are likely to prioritize purely ICOs such the Xerox copy ICOs issued on Ethereum. The outcome for other purely ICO issues such as NEO and Qtum is less clear to me. So the Armageddon may be a muddled outcome that meanders for a year, couple of years, or so before eventually all tokens with a scam-like history are perhaps doomed (and not just because of possible securities regulation rather that failure of execution is endemic to scams). Thus, I think the free market might actually kill STEEM, DASH, and ETH before the regulators need to ^{_{(and I’m thinking specifically of what I know about my altcoin project that outsiders do not, and being the one that potentially kills those what I think are poor executed or some other paradigm shift from some group I may not even be aware of)}}.

^{_{Since I know from past experience that a few (not too many) people are going to ask me, I will just answer in advance. Readers can’t invest in my altcoin project now. At launch you may be able to. We’re working to possibly offer that crowd equity second round of financing opportunity so we can broaden the pre-mine distribution before the onboarding phase of distribution begins.}}

As for gold, MA’s stance is it will likely decline one more time below $1050 before the slingshot to $5000. But he does allow for the possibility that it does not decline. $1367 is the key level of overhead resistance.

P.S. Ethereum is very confusing to analyse from a securities perspective. I suppose ETC is actually the decentralized original block chain of what was launched as Ethereum with an ICO. ETH forked off to steal back a user’s ETH. What an amazing chaos. Is it decentralized enough and chaotic enough to cause regulators to stay away? Will be interesting to see what happens.

[anonymint]

SEC settlements. Sia coin pays a relatively heavy penalty but EOS waltzes away relatively unscathed paying only a $24 million penalty.

And both tokens aren’t forced to be registered. But former securities now significantly driven by decentralized market factors no longer need registration.

Remember EOS lawyer-ed up and raised enough money to presumably pay for influence. Also remember I had noted they separated the EOS Token ICO from the EOS Platform token.

But remember it’s unlikely that EOS raised $4.1 billion because much of that can be the issuers buying the ICO sale from themselves to drive FOMO.

Also this is only a settlement with the SEC. It’s unknown whether EOS will have to have to settle with the EU at some point.

Essentially I think what I wrote above 2 years ago remains the primary conclusion:

Note I don’t think all the more muddled cases of “ICO-issued” equivalents tokens such as ETH, STEEM, DASH, NEM will necessarily be regulated immediately. I think first regulators are likely to prioritize purely ICOs such the Xerox copy ICOs issued on Ethereum. The outcome for other purely ICO issues such as NEO and Qtum is less clear to me. So the Armageddon may be a muddled outcome that meanders for a year, couple of years, or so before eventually all tokens with a scam-like history are perhaps doomed (and not just because of possible securities regulation rather that failure of execution is endemic to scams). Thus, I think the free market might actually kill STEEM, DASH, and ETH before the regulators need to

The altcoins appear to be dying if you look at their price pairings relative to BTC. Significant dead-cat bounces are possible along the way.

This “good news” (settlement without requiring registration) may reignite some dead-cat bounce FOMO for alts, and it appears altcoins have bottomed or nearly so:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-and-altcoins-market-cap-flash-bullish-possibilities-as-bitcoin-price-wavers