Imagine if you could have bet on Bitconnect or other Pyramid Schemes collapsing - would you have done it?
For the first time ever, there is an Ethereum Smart Contract for betting on the balance of other contracts or wallets. How does this tie in with Pyramid Schemes, you ask?
Well, more than one month ago, https://ethphoenix.io/ (EPX) was launched following the brutal hack of another unrelated scheme. EthPhoenix is a "Transparent Pyramid Scheme", but for our purposes here, it is simply a Smart Contract where people regularly deposit and withdraw large sums of money.
Enter PyrMex
http://PyrMex.com (Pyramid Market Exchange) is a website where you can bet on EthPhoenix's balance going either up or down. It was not made by the same developers, and NONE of the money deposited into PyrMex goes back into EthPhoenix (Unless you want it to).
There are 6 betting pots, 3 are bearish (market will go down / crash) and 3 bullish (market will go up / moon). You can place a bet into any of these 6 pots. When you place a bet into a pot, the winnings multiplier for every other pot goes up. This is because you've strengthened the "market sentiment" that reality will follow your bet, so others betting contrary must be made more potentially lucrative.
Once daily, bets are closed. Then there is a 1 hour window in which EPX is able to be bought or sold before the winning pot is decided. Then, if the final balance matches the pot you bet on, you are paid out the appropriate multiplier.
In general, the sentiment towards Pyramid Schemes is overwhelmingly negative - Most people believe that they will all collapse sooner than later (and in fact, so far, every Pyramid Scheme HAS collapsed). Now, you can bet AGAINST the scheme, and the people sustaining it. As time goes on, the probability of Pyramid Schemes collapsing approaches 100%. This makes betting against one potentially extremely profitable.
In fact, depending on how many people are betting on it to rise, you could win a multiplier of up to 200x or more by successfully predicting a collapse, or even a small dip.
Wait, can't this be manipulated?
Yes it can, in fact PyrMex is partially a manipulation game. So your strategies depend on the amount of money you have available, and your confidence in EPX. Betting on Bitconnect going up was the right move for a long time - until it wasn't.
Let's Talk Strategy
Don't have a lot of ETH? Wait until betting is almost over, then observe the market sentiment. If there are large bets in any pot, it is likely someone has the manipulation power to back that up. You can copy their bet, and take a small percent of their winnings. Or, place a small bet into each pot.
Do you have a ton of ETH? Place a large bet in an unlikely pot, then manipulate EPX. PyrMex bets will have a real tangible impact on EPX itself. It's up to you whether you want to take it to the moon, or crash it into the ground.
Remember this is gambling, but given that Pyramid Schemes are all bound to collapse sooner or later, eventually, someone betting on it going down is going to make a lot of money.
The first of its kind
This is the first EVER, and ONLY futures market for Ethereum Balances, and in the future, the same contract could be used to bet on the popularity of other dApps, such as Cryptokitties, or even the ETH holdings of Binance and other exchanges!
If you have questions for the developers, they are active and happy to answer all of your questions here:
https://discord.gg/tWFUGq
Please do your own research before investing in anything or gambling your money. Please do not gamble more money than you can afford to lose.
How many rounds have the smart contract ran so far?
It seems interestinh but im gonna wait to see it run a whole round before I make any bets.
At least 5 by now, they're settled once daily. The contract has also been reworked as of today to have a dynamic Vigorish, starting at 0%, as incentive for early bettors. The spread between pots has also been reduced after observing minimal swinging movement. (Which is the intended purpose)
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