Bitcoin prices goes down because :
- China wants to ban crypto trading.
- Chinese New Year - people selling their crypto to buy tickets for plane, train, gifts etc. Every year around january we had deep probably because of that
- And on top of that when people see that prices falling down they're start panicking and becomes panic sell.
It's almost like there's a trigger for a downtrend and if that downtrend continues for too long, maybe because of how its impact is perceived, the short term downtrend doesn't recover because more and more people start to sell, and it becomes a larger (down) trend. So basically your point #3