Fair points here @workin2005, just for the record I didn't mean to take a jab at you when I mentioned the "capitulation narrative" getting old.
I strongly disagree with the 50/50 probability to being right or wrong though, the current market is showing all the signs of a bottom:
- dismal public awareness (google trends);
- crypto traders on twitter rage quitting and talking of trading stocks
- again the price action which is flat and boring, hence shows accumulation
- meanwhile the infrastructure that is being built on crypto is picking up a lot of speed, Fidelity, BAKKT, even brick and mortar university are diversifying in crypto.
It's this blend of bullish fundamentals, flat chart and low awareness that makes it (imo) a great time to buy, provided one respects the principles of position sizing and all that.
There are too many fence-sitting market analysts out -there (I am not including you among them) and I think as analysts we need to have a little more skin in the game and take risks with our predictions and not constantly being afraid of being right or wrong, that also comes with having a good strategy, mine is to accumulate cheap and everything looks cheap to me right now.
Cheers!
I agree the long term (6+ months) outlook is EXTREMELY bullish, for many of the reasons you listed and more. That said, short term, I think a strong case can be made either way. I also agree that analysts should be willing to express a bias one way or the other...but only if they can back that bias with evidence AND if that evidence outweighs the counter argument.
I'm a bull at heart. I want to tell people price is about to explode...and it very well could. But I also can't ignore the evidence of a bearish break. If I put my bias aside, I don't believe either argument outweighs the other. With that in mind, I can't in good conscious call a bottom.
Personally, I'll make money no matter what happens. But I know 99% of those who listen aren't making their living trading. If I tell them the bottom is in, they'll take it to heart. I don't want that on my conscious when I feel it's about 50/50.
Let me preface the following comments by saying I'm NOT referring to you.
I started putting out analysis because I was sick of the many so called "analysts" making ridiculous calls. When they were wrong, they'd blame it on all kinds of things. When they're right, they act like they're Nostradamus. I swear most of them live in their mother's basement. So many people were loosing money because they foolishly listened to the advice of morons. Yes it's their fault for not doing their own homework, but it's also partially on the dishonest TA put out by so many.
It'd be EASY, and much more popular, for me to claim the bottom was in and Bitcoin was about to explode. If I'm right, I look like a genius. If I'm wrong, no worries...it's just crypto.
When I started putting out videos, I asked the advice of a few successful analysts. I had a very popular one (who I'm sure you know) advise me to "always sound bullish. These fools eat that stuff up. Doesn't matter if you're right...just keep'em excited."
Yes...He literally said those words. I said a few choice words back. Needless to say we haven't spoken since. Know what? He's still doing the same old song a dance and his followers eat it up. I don't know how he lives with himself. Again...this is NOT directed at you.
So while I agree it's good to have skin in the game, I don't think we should make a call just to say we made a call. If their's strong evidence on both sides, I feel it's up to us to tell our audience just that. Right now, some of the best minds in TA can't agree on which way bitcoin is going to break. Do I lean bullish? Yes. Am I willing to publicly call a bottom with so much uncertainty? No way.
Well that was much longer than I intended! ;-)
Anyway...Hope you don't take any of this personally. I believe you're a good, honest man and respect your work. We all have to do what we think is right. I appreciate your thoughts my friend.