Analyzing the Inflation Rate of SmartCash (SMART)

in #cryptocurrency7 years ago (edited)

I wasn't able to find any analysis of the inflation rate for the SmartCash SMART cryptocurrency so I decided to try and do some of my own analysis. Hopefully my work is accurate, and hopefully some of you will find it helpful.

The rate that new SmartCash (SMART) is created is specified on https://smartcash.cc/what-is-smartcash/ where it says that the "BlockReward = 5000*143500/BlockHeight" with a maximum of 5000, and a Blocktime of 55 seconds.

Per http://explorer.smartcash.cc, I found that the current BlockHeight was 201866, and when I plugged that into the equation above I calculate that roughly 3554 SMART should be created in block 201886 which checks out with what I saw on the explorer link above. Also, at block 201886 the total supply was listed on the explorer link as 965150963 so we can calculate the inflation rate of block 201886, however, what I think would be most helpful would be to calculate the monthly inflation rates from one 25th of the month to another because that is when SmartRewards are calculated. A script could be written to do this, but I decided to use calculus and a spreadsheet instead.

The equation, BlockReward = 5000 * 143500/BlockHeight, is basically a function of the form f(x)=A/x where A is a constant (which equals 5000 * 143500) and x is the BlockHeight, and from calculus you have the integral of this function taking the form "A * ln|x| + C" where ln|x| is the natural log of the absolute value of x (where the natural log is the log of base e where e is 2.71828) and where C is another constant, and we can determine the constant C from a known data point like the one in the paragraph above where the total supply on block 201886 was 965150963. The resulting equation for the total supply of SmartCash (SMART) as a function of BlockHeigth is as follows (valid for blocks >= 143500).

total supply of SMART = 5000 * 143500 * ln(BlockHeight) + 965150963 - 5000 * 143500 * ln(201886)

Below is a graph of the total SmartCash (SMART) supply from 11/25/2017 to 12/25/2019.

graph of SmartCash supply

Using the equation above, and using the explorer to find a block that occurred on the 25th of November 2017, block 198756, and assuming blocks are created roughly every 55 seconds, I used a spreadsheet to calculate the following table which shows the total supply of SMART on the 25th of the month for several months, and I also shows the monthly inflation rate of SMART.

DayTotal Supply (SMART)Monthly Inflation
25 Oct 2017752,731,452 
25 Nov 2017953,939,85326.73%
25 Dec 20171,106,608,77116.00%
25 Jan 20181,236,260,03711.72%
25 Feb 20181,346,030,2418.88%
25 Mar 20181,432,534,9596.43%
25 Apr 20181,517,521,7975.93%
25 May 20181,591,170,3724.85%
25 Jun 20181,660,080,6364.33%
25 Jul 20181,721,004,3573.67%
25 Aug 20181,778,955,5603.37%
25 Sep 20181,832,573,9253.01%
25 Oct 20181,880,906,2062.64%
25 Nov 20181,927,648,4222.49%
25 Dec 20181,970,156,4602.21%
25 Jan 20192,011,586,1252.10%
25 Feb 20192,050,753,6001.95%
25 Mar 20192,084,381,8961.64%
25 Apr 20192,119,862,3091.70%
25 May 20192,152,604,4911.54%
25 Jun 20192,184,938,1001.50%
25 Jul 20192,214,899,7441.37%
25 Aug 20192,244,599,3371.34%
25 Sep 20192,273,118,2791.27%
25 Oct 20192,299,678,2411.17%
25 Nov 20192,326,128,1971.15%
25 Dec 20192,350,828,7821.06%

One way the table above may be helpful could be to compare your monthly SmartRewards to that month's SMART inflation rate. For example, if your SmartRewards on 25th of January 2018 are 5% then your rewards would be less than the 11.72% inflation. Does anyone know where you can go to see the percentage SmartRewards ends up paying out each month? Maybe I should I just buy 1000 SMART and hold it to find out what the SmartRewards rate is each month :)

Another way the table above can be helpful is it can help explain why your SmartRewards will decline over time because inflation declines over time and your SmartRewards are based on inflation. I think only 15% of SMART's inflation goes toward SmartRewards.

Hopefully the table above is accurate. I double checked it, but I didn't triple check it. Please let me know if you notice any errors.

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@smartbot tip @twodollars 100

This is pretty cool! Thanks for the effort :)

Σ$$$ Tipped @twodollars Σ100 SMART! Comment @smartbot help to claim. Currently the price of SmartCash in the market is $0.058 USD per SMART. Current value of the tip is $5.80 USD. To find out more about SmartCash, please visit https://smartcash.cc.

@smartbot help

You can use the following commands:

  • balance - displays your current wallet balance
  • address- displays your deposit address
  • withdraw <address> - withdraws your whole wallet balance to specified address
  • tip <nick> <amount> - sends the specified amount of smartcash to nickname
  • terms - displays terms and conditions for using @smartbot

@smartbot balance

@twodollars has Σ100 SMART (unconfirmed: Σ0 SMART).

@smartbot address

Your deposit address is SP1LFtbrowMug4HXTcb1LYa8raJ8LThdXw.

@smartbot withdraw SbH4VXcvDDLT6VX2oyJbK4qhwyJ2yv6HjC

Thanks for posting this via ChainBB (I would have missed it otherwise).

Have you posted a link to this in the discord? I bet some of them wouldn't mind jumping in and explaining things a bit more.

Thanks, I'll plan to post a link in the smartcash discord. It was your post about smartcash that got me looking more into it.

Inflation rate decrease means price go higher overtime. And since the 5,000,000,000 coin is design to mine 100 years, I think Smart is one of the most stable coin.

Having a decreasing inflation rate doesn't necessarily mean that prices go higher over time. However, it does mean there is less SMART awarded to miners over time, less SMART given as SmartRewards over time, and less SMART given to SmartHive/HiveTeams over time. The hope is that decreasing inflation will increase the demand for SMART resulting in SMART becoming more valuable over time, but this isn't guaranteed to happen.

Nice article. This information is really helpful.

The equation, BlockReward = 5000 * 143500/BlockHeight, is basically a function of the form f(x)=A/x where A is a constant (which equals 5000 * 143500) and x is the BlockHeight, and from calculus you have the integral of this function taking the form "A * ln|x| + C" where ln|x| is the natural log of the absolute value of x (where the natural log is the log of base e where e is 2.71828) and where C is another constant, and we can determine the constant C from a known data point like the one in the paragraph above where the total supply on block 201886 was 965150963. The resulting equation for the total supply of SmartCash (SMART) as a function of BlockHeigth is as follows (valid for blocks >= 143500).

Great effort, and very good information. Are you an economist or something?

Thanks for the help, very good publicity.

Nice and informative, Thanks :)