It is Saturday afternoon here in New York's Adirondack Mountains, escaping Florida's heat and humidity for awhile!
Picking up from our last report Wednesday we said Bitcoin then 6250 and "what's wrong (?)", we said SENTIMENT is what's "wrong". Of course it has been trading with the rallies on ETF good news and then ETF bad news.
Remember please our January SELL (15000) was followed by a 5850 buy in Late June. We saw a very healthy rally that we said to sell about three weeks later at 7700. We said take the 35% and run. Why? SENTIMENT immediately turned very negative. A little later at 8400 it was "the end of the road". NO, I never did say "short".
We three days ago, based on the oversold condition wrote you can get a dead cat bounce, and thus yesterday you saw 6550 (approx.). I really am not interestede in the "short term of BTC" or really the metals or the DOW! )(Been there, done that) I'd rather sleep well.
We have BTC at the moment at 6425 with SENTIMENT hovering at 78 percent bulls. I'm no buyer here. And I'm not at all projecting at what spot there will be a BUY. I always let sentiment dictate it. You find many experts on these pages (about 90 percent kept you long in January. They'll give you the number where that price will present itself!
The Dow-Jones: Down 275 Friday and ending down 195 to 25,513 with news of Turkish currency trouble. WHAT ELSE is NEW, and you've seen nothing yet folks. I'm OUT of this market. WE called Sell in January at 26,500 with (like BTC) a nice buy at 24,100 in late June! And of course we'd be out! That was written after the quick 1000 plus points. Why? We are in big trouble longer term. The reasons are so many and debt laden, and trade laden with serious dollar implications.
Yet I just feel the plunger protection team has a little ammo (not much) left. SENTIMENT is quite good. The seasonal is not good. I see one more nice move up perhaps to new highs!! Sell on it. I believe you'll be glad you did.
BACK UP THE TRUCK....Above see the extremely bullish COT chart of silver. The commercials are loading up. There is more to go. TED BUTLER wrote the other day JPM now has 600 million ounces of Silver! 150 million is documented. Who is Butler? He may be the country's leading expert in what's happening "behind the scenes". See the chart above of the HUNT bros. and our last move to 50.00. Butler believes J.P. Morgan will let it fly this time. they have more to gain now, thus their big position. Also we have less silver now above ground than in previous big moves and much more demand. Sive r is an absolute gift. I believe we will blow righ buy 50.00, and it begins this fall. See the seasonal.
Gold is presenting the same scenario. The most bullish "commercial short covering" stats in 10 years and they should be better shortly. Support is very strong at this level (low 1200's. Perhaps the greatest technician alive (Ron Rosen) calls for 1140 and November for blastoff and he means new highs next year. That is the magnitude of the next move. You know there is a catalyst in the waiting. Is it a debt crisis that makes '08 look small?
Great article! Although i’m buying bitcoin all the way down!
thanks my friend...(I think you are right on BTC)..
I've got some put options on several companies for an October crash. For me the question is how will the gold mining stocks react to a market crash and a rise in Gold price? I would guess they would initially go down slightly then they will take off.
thanks...my "gut" is '19 the big drop..but you may be 100 per cent right..
I'm debating on wether waiting for 2 green daily wicks in a row for btc is a good entrance strategy. That bounce was a good call. It was confirmed to happen by what I call a square pattern.
thanks....and appreciated!
Great analysis. Yes, the dow and asian markets tanked yesterday but I see a continuing bull market. Dumped about 7k into vanguard 500 for easy gains this week.
smart! and thanks..
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Listening and waiting. I am in no hurry.
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