I describe it like fishing. It isn't even completely time. Some of my personal favorite blogs over the past months I've been here made nothing or close to nothing. I've had things I wrote for the hell of it that I didn't expect to do well that did well. I've stopped trying to predict. I just write what I like and let the chips fall where they may. I can't predict what will do well. I've had more of my longer posts do better than any of my short posts. I've had a few short posts do okay.
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Maybe doing what you like is the best strategy of all @dwinblood. I do it exactly in the same way :)