Great explained.
I can agree with your method.
If I'm correct you receive curation rewards from minute 27 but not the whole percentaces. (From minute 0-26 the author gets 100% of the curation rewards.) - Sorry if you already mentioned this.
Starting with minute 30 the curators receive 100% of the curation rewards.
So voting before a whale vote in minute 27-30 is always a good option.
That's my understanding so far.
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No, that is incorrect, I believe. For each minute you get 3.33% more curation rewards. After 15 minutes you get 50% and after 30 minutes you get 100% (of the 25% amount reserved for curators, including the super complicated calculation for who came first and when). Many people upvote after 15-20 minutes to catch all the auto-voters for big users you regularly get high upvotes. This can still be profitable under the right circumstances.
This will be changed with the next hardfork down to 15 minutes instead of 30.