PO = Projected Ownership % based on Thu-Mon, 16 games.
Only the highest PO players are listed.
Chalk
Mike Evans - $8600, 17.91% PO
- Winston's #1 target opened his season with a bang against Chicago and could've built off of it more if the game stayed competitive. An away game with the Vikings will allow Evans to have that chance, assuming QB Sam Bradford plays. If Case Keenum starts again, I would fall off of this pick and think Evan's ceiling would be equal to the 18.8 pts he got last week.
Dez Bryant - $7800, 3.69% PO - This spot should be used on the obvious, which is Julio Jones or Antonio Brown, and this pick probably fits more on the Pivot side but I want to give you guys' something fresh. Due to game script last week, Bryant got an enormous 16 targets thrown his way. Now that won't be a norm and he will be blanketed by All-Pro CB Patrick Peterson this week, but things still look appealing. Dez has 7 red zone targets in the past 3 games and he's been targeted at least 9 times too. This includes his game last week against Denver's "No Fly Zone." The Cardinals defense is allowing WRs to avg 1.5 TD per game and 33.3 FPPG. Bryant also avgs 79% more pts in domes and 17.47 FPPG in his last 3 close games, Dallas is the favorite by 3 pts this week.
Pivot
DeAndre Hopkins - $7500, 9.03% PO
- He's the most targeted WR in the NFL right now and this game is all about opportunities. With RB Lamar Miller struggling, WR Will Fuller still suspended and the lack of weapons on the Houston offense, Hopkins is in line for a big day against the New England defense. His career FPPG avg against the Patriots is a poor 7.93 pts but I can't see him scoring that low this week.
Keenan Allen - $7200, 8.31% PO - Week 1 he got his TD and Week 2 he got his volume and yardage. Now he's got a decent matchup to put both of those things together. This game has the 3rd highest OVER/UNDER this week and its scheduled to be a close game with the Chargers being 3 pt underdogs. A healthy Keenan Allen is scary, let him ride.
Fade
Larry Fitzgerald - $6500, 14.88% PO
- I don't care how good the matchups are anymore with Fitzgerald. When Carson Palmer does throw TDs it's apparently to WR JJ Nelson, who is taking up WR John Brown and RB David Johnson's scoring opportunities. With the PO that high, if Fitz and Palmer bomb again then it'll pay out in your favor.
Doug Baldwin - $7400, 11.01% PO - The Titan's defense got exposed by a broken Jaguar's WR core last week so this must be Baldwin's breakout game this year!
Pump your brakes. Russell Wilson has thrown for less than 260 yds in 6 of his last 8 games and I don't see that changing. Just like many other teams in the NFL this year, Seattle's offensive line has been hindering their success. Baldwin saw his targets increase this week but his yardage total dwindled. Bank on your hopes and dreams but until I see different QB play from Wilson, Baldwin is a no go.
GPP
Golden Tate - $7400, 2.43% PO
- Tate was a nobody due to the game script in Week 2 against the NYGs. He's going to have a great opportunity to bounce back against Atlanta in Detroit's home opener. He's averaged 20.95 FPPG in 2 high scoring games, with this being the 2nd highest OVER/UNDER this week at 50.5. Throw on the fact that he scores an incredible 96% more points in domes! Tate has yet to score a TD this season, but he is a slot receiver that runs a lot of short/immediate routes and produces with volume targets. Very safe floor with a good ceiling this week.
Davanta Adams - $6800, 3.66% PO - This pick will be dictated on if WRs Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb play. If both are out, Adams will be Aaron Rodgers #1 receiver. Last week, he managed 8 catches for 99 yds and a TD filling that spot. When both played in Week 1, he was invisible on the field and scored only 6.2 pts.
Contrarian
Odell Beckham JR - $8800, 4.89% PO
- The Giants LT Flowers got man handled by DET DE Ziggy Ansah on Monday night allowing him to set a franchise game record 3 sacks. The rest of the offensive line didn't do much better. Philadelphia's defensive line is relentless and will torture QB Eli Manning. With OBJ not being completely 100% and the offensive line being a disaster, how could I view OBJ as a successful contrarian play? The Eagles secondary is beat up missing 3 starters this week: CBs Ronald Darby and Jaylen Watkins and S Rodney McLeoud. Also Head Coach Bob McAdoo has considered giving up his play calling job to his offensive coordinator. Now, if the Giants somehow figure out how to deal with the Eagle's pass rush and get the ball to OBJ, he could be in line for a big day cause he has a good history against the Eagles averaging 20 pts last season and 16 pts over his last 3 games. But that is a lot of wishful thinking.
Tyreek Hill - $7300, 15.69% PO - Hill is one of the fastest and most exciting players in the NFL and has made a calling for making plays over 40-50+ yards .
He opened the season up with some dynamic plays against the Patriots but was shutdown in Week 2 by the Eagles when he didn't make a play. So the question is: Can he make a play this week against the Charger's secondary? The Chargers longest opponent WR catch has been 31 yds this year. Players like Hill are special though and having RB Kareem Hunt gashing defenses could open a hole in the secondary for Hill. Buyer beware.
Sleeper
Jarvis Landry - $6800, 3.12% PO
- It's no secret that the Jets are bad. Bad offensively and defensively for that matter. So playing anyone against them is a smart play. I believe you'll get more value taking Landry over Parker and Stills though taking price and statistics into consideration. The Jets are allowing 2 TD/g and 31.7 FPPG to WRs alone. For his career, Landry has 15.35 FPPG against the Jets. On top of that, he has at least 12 targets and 6 red zone targets in the last 3 games. Michael Crabtree just scored 3 TDs on the Jets and two of them were in the red zone. If the Dolphins get the chance in the red zone, they at least know the Jets are susceptible to a WR scoring. Looks like Landry will be the guy.
Desean Jackson - $6400, 5.88% PO - Here's my stretch sleeper. The Vikings gave up a 51 yd catch to the Saints in Week 1 and a 52 yd TD to Martavis Bryant in Week 2. What does DeSean Jackson do best and why was he signed to be the #2 in Tampa Bay? To stretch the field and keep the defenses honest. Jackson have mediocre stats in Week 2 (3 catches for 39 yds) but he was still targeted 7 times in a game that was controlled by Tampa all day. Jameis has a new toy in Jackson, he's going to want to play with him soon.
Bargain (< $6000)
Rashard Higgins - $5100, 1.89% PO
- I'll quote Connor McGregor on this one, "Who the fook is that guy?" Higgins broke onto the scene last week due to the injury to WR Brandon Coleman and exploded with an 11 target, 7 catch, 95 yd game. A full week worth of game planning involving Higgins and going against one of the worst defenses this week in the Colts is a perfect matchup to expand his numbers.
Devin Funchess - $4800 - The injury to Greg Olsen has left a huge void to be filled for the Panther's and Funchess will have the best opportunity to make the most of it. The Saints have the worst defense against WRs this year and Funchess had success against them last year (13 targets, 4 catches and a TD.) For the amount of damage that can be done this game, Funchess is arguably the most valuable bargain pick.
Geronimo Allison - $4600 - Just like Davanta Adams situation, if Nelson and Cobb are out then Allison will jump into the starting lineup and can benefit off of the coverage Adams will require. Allison had 5 targets last week and that was even with Cobb playing most of the game.
great post
Thank you and much appreciated! Will be posting more content weekly if not daily.
Enjoy your posts. I personally would be weary of Evans if the Vikings stick Rhodes on him all game like they did to Brown. But Jackson should have a great game, considering Newman is too slow to cover him and Waynes just cant cover anyone well. Bryant would have scored much more if not for a DPI that prevented him from scoring a long TD.
Thank you very much!
Brown's effectiveness was obviously dwindled due to Rhodes' coverage so I'd agree the same can happen with this matchup. But when it comes to All-Pro WRs, sometimes you just have to roll with the assumption they will go off. The Bears defense is not the same as the Vikings, and 1 game worth of stats isn't enough to build completely accurate assessments of these predictions. I'm personally staying away from Evans this week and will be taking Jackson in at least one of my GPPs.
I believe Antonio Brown is the best WR in the league and I would take him every week against anyone unless hard statistics or other circumstances made it clear to stay away. The guy just puts up insane video game numbers.