Dag, Carola! I listened to Haejin as well and he had some really good calls, especially Verge. Now I am trying to learn from everyone, Salah including.
Concerning bitcoin and the governments - I agree that even if they close exchanges, there are decentralized ones (that's why I keep buying from time to time bitshares). But what concerns me is that governments can simply criminalize cryptocurrency trading under false pretenses that it is used by criminals, terrorists and tax evaders. In this case it will be impossible to deposit fiat and even if bitcoin's price rises (because this is what normally happens once the government illegalises something) , it will be pretty hard to sell it and the only option will be to be paid in cash. I think that this scenario is still unlikely, because in the USA, for example, there is a pretty good lobby that supports bitcoin. However, things could change in the not so distant future. I don't think that it is a coincidence that Visa stopped bitcoin transactions, the World Bank chief and the CEO of the Bank of International Settlements say that bitcoin is a ponzi scheme, the harsher measures the governments of India and China are launching on bitcoin, etc.
Another thing is that just looking at what happened to Linux might give us some sort of an idea of what might happen to crypto in general. Linux is open code and it has its hard supporters, but it is not where money goes to. On the other hand Android is based on Linux..The problem with a decentralized project is that it has no patents and history so far shows that some other company will study the project, copy it and put a patent on it afterwards (you have mentioned google, but to me it is different from crypto - first it has a product and second - patents, while the majority of crypto have no products and all of them have no patents). Hence my query what is the reason for most people to buy crypto. I believe it is to make money (and there is nothing wrong about it). However, this means that once they make profits, they will sell for fiat, which makes crypto mostly speculative assets. In my opinion speculative assets don't last long, and it doesn't help much if they still have no products (just take a quick look at the roadmaps of most crypto - Cardano, EOS, IOTA, etc).
So, I believe that this year we will probably have new pumps which will be followed by big dumps. The majority of crypto traders are amateurs (such as myself) and experienced traders know that this is easy money for them. I expect bitcoin and the alt coins to reach new highs and then they will get crushed again. This thing might be repeated a few more times until interest in crypto wanes - by this time the majority of bitcoins will be owned by a few big investors who would be able to manipulate the price much more than today.
My conclusion: Crypto will be profitable for us, if we know how the big whales think and if we manage to escape before they crash bitcoin again. I am quite sure they want to make more money and therefore they will pump it again this year - may be we will cross 30K. However, if my observations about crypto are correct, it makes no sense to look at crypto as a longer-term investment (more than 1.5-2 years)- almost nobody supports the non-existent projects and everybody just speculates with the price. Not that you have asked me about my opinion and sorry my message is this long, but I really believe that with this discussion we might reach some conclusion of what the future of crypto is and whether we will be able to make money with it in 2-3 years time :)
Cheers!
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