You are viewing a single comment's thread from:

RE: Vlog 340: Things you should have in place before living of the blockchain.

in #dlive7 years ago

In addition, what I say is not financial advice and take what I say with a grain of salt.

1-4. All salient points, keep in mind that there are still systemic risks to the crypto ecosystem, especially from potential threats like the closure of the thing that starts with a T and rhymes with Ether.

  1. Cryptos, as we have seen, are a highly correlated, high-risk asset class. Common investing wisdom says you should be invested in a basket of investments that have near 0 or even negative correlation. The investing landscape has changed in recent decades especially this past decade because of Central Bank stimulus and the rise of investment vehicles like ETF's for stocks, making it harder to find uncorrelated equities to invest in.

  2. Real estate is in a bubble in many local markets, especially those that are seen as investment havens by countries where wealth outflows result in cash buys of property, this is many metro areas in the west and elsewhere. CB stimulus may be withdrawn over time (so they claim), and interest rates are going up in most developed economies (or rate hikes are planned).

Historically housing prices have gone the inverse of interest rates, low rates means easy money and lending to purchase residential and commercial real estate (although CRE has been on a straight line up for over a decade). Basically, when interest rates go up, every 1% APR increase diminishes the spending power of potential buyers proportionally to the current APR's available. So when rates go up, housing prices go down. Right now, at least in the US, there are still upper-edge increases in the maximum price buyers are willing to pay in a lot of markets, but the mid and lower ends look weak already.

Of interest is the fact that year over year there have been less of the investor class purchasing homes and a larger percentage of first time home buyers (fueled by things like FHA loans on 3.5% down payments, which is ridiculous in itself), I view first time home buyers as kind of indicative of the "sucker's market" in that they are less financially savvy and more prone to buy due to need (family, job location, etc.) instead of knowledge of proper pricing for the purchase relative to their own projected income and any increases in property value.

Another thing to note is that many private equity firms have been spinning off or selling their single family home divisions they acquired or IPO'd earlier in the cycle.

Precious metals like gold did not fare well the last financial crisis at least price-wise, but they have the possibility of remaining in your hands in a collapse scenario (unless someone grabs them from you by force, which is always a possibility).

Bonds are shaky, especially the junk bonds market. Some corporations in China are already defaulting on their bonds at the highest rates in a decade this year and it appears to be accelerating. I would highly recommend against holding any small to local government sized bonds, as entities of that size are often dependent on factors like home prices for revenue, so you can see where I'm going with that. Even sovereign debt may be suspect, depending on the ability of the given government to finance its debt, think PIGS etc.

In the case of yet another depression which is highly likely at this point I would say it is smart to have excess cash or cash equivalents on hand to invest near market lows, so if you currently have a well-paying job it may not be the best idea to forgo certain income in the present and the ability to build up those reserves right before many investments go on huge discounts.

Sort:  

Both those points are based on scarcity. Crypto is not a high-risk asset class. It's so much superior to stocks or any other asset! It's clearly the safest to invest in. It gives more speed and value in return! This is something 100% of humans on Earth is interested in. Supply and Demand.

It's high-risk in the sense that volatility is higher than any other asset class for now.Maybe if it's seen as a store of value/safety asset when this hits the fan...

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/11/global-debt-hits-a-new-record-at-247-trillion.html