Hey, @phgnomo.
Thank you for the analysis. It's pretty sobering when you trot out numbers like that. :)
But, I'm even more convinced that the typical investor is looking at things like you've mentioned much more than they are at what the daily active users are doing or caring about.
When you think as an investor side, the basic way of thinking is "how to, how much and how long".
The only way to "invest" on the blockchain is buying Steem Tokens.
Then the investor question is "what value can i get from what i bought".
Since the passive ways don't give a good return (if you consider that the STEEM price will be the same), the only way to have a higher return than other options is by price increase.
And the only way for the price to increase, is an increase in demand.
So, unless there is a good upward trend of new users/activity on the blockchain (wich in theory could increase the STEEM demand), there expected return on Steem as an investmend will continue to be bad.