I appreciate your analysis. I often rely on folks smarter than me to inform me of things I am incapable of doing for myself. This usually works out for me, as most folks are smarter than me and honest too.
However, I note one factor your analysis seems to have neglected, which is that players with thousands of units will take drugs from players without them. I will be amongst the latter. Taking drugs from other players will affect ROI, and players that take them will increase their ROI, while players losing drugs to armed thugs will see decreased ROI. Again, that will include me (an alt).
Lastly, I cannot lose money on this game. Ever. I have already earned more than I have invested, and if I refrain from injecting any more Steem, I cannot lose money. I did this purposely, so that I could gain from my entertainment, which is quite a novel feature of the technological revolution ongoing, and particularly of Steem and it's dapps.
While I cannot lose money, my continued interest in the game can be dispelled, if raids aren't handled well enough. I don't need to be immune from raids, but I do need to be able to continue to play with achievable goals without being so taxed by raiders that I cannot progress, and this will require some pretty careful balancing by the devs. I hope they have the requisite finesse to pull that off, as it seems pretty daunting to me.
Regardless of whether they can manage to keep the game playable for folks that CANNOT invest thousands of actual, real dollars - as some folks have already - which will be an amazing feat, I reckon they have already successfully pulled this game off, by showing the potential of Steem to enable such a novel paradigm as entertainment that can financially reward you for playing. This is a fascinating transcendence of historical paradigms, immense in it's implications, and not just for gaming or Steem.
It shows the amazing innovation that Steem, as well as @drugwars, is, and gives us a glimpse of a future where it isn't scarcity that enables power, but abundance. It's hard to overestimate the potential impact of this paradigm on things like government, war, and society in every aspect.
Can you address the significance of raids on ROI?
Thanks!