Thanks nbiroz, so your saying Luc's method is really only valid on the most recent base in regards to a safe bet...when using previous bases and the retesting of those bases there is less predictability of the chart direction...correct?
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the theory tells yo to care only about 1 or 2 last bases(unbroken i assume) in 2 months zoom out, and to trade panic sells. But it is your choice to trade any crack or drop you see sufficient. I am not sure how you would go about calculating your probababilities.
smaller bases are useful for daytrading where u can zoom in on 2 weeks or less chart and use 5 or 15 min candles for buying dips below these bases.
position trading relies on buying below major breaks and waiting for first bounce that almost retouches the previous base/level.