So I had a fun hour yesterday buying potions and opening some packs. If you've been following my posts, I've been talking about the flippening for the last 3 or 4 weeks. And I do follow my own advice. So I accumulated 2300 beta packs. Now that opening quantities is back, I decided it was time to see what I got.
Burning Down the House (of DEC)
It's interesting that 88 million DEC sounds like a lot. And a new million DEC being produced each day sounds like a lot. But when you start to use the sinks, it doesn't last very long. I had 2300 packs to open. That means 11500 cards. And that means I needed 23 gold potions and 23 legendary potions, which costs a little over a million DEC.
Here's what the DEC supply was before I started buying potions:
And here is after:
It goes fast! And that's even with my guild's 2% discount, which saved me about 20k DEC.
On to the Opening!
If you watch the whole video, which is ridiculously long, you'll hear some confusion on the peakmonster account numbers. After finishing, I figured out what happened.
This first screencap is from the beta-filtered account value:
PM beta start 
And this screencap is the ending beta-filitered account value:
PM beta total 
Net change: 6799 list value / 4966 bid value / 5902 market value / 1,762,525 DEC
Said another way, worst case I broke even, best cast I made 36%, median case I made 12% on my 5k investment.
I call that a win!
Of course, being me, I won't be selling. This all goes in the stack and I'll be rolling out several herons accounts here.
Another observation I made was that even with 2300 pacls it still wasn't enough to max out a regular deck. The beta collection has more cards than alpha, so a given rarity is spread thinner.
The average result by rarity was:
regular common: 286
regular rare: 111
regular epic: 23
regular legendary: 10
gold common: 12
gold rare: 5.2
gold epic: 0.7
gold legendary: 0.2
Some other screencaps along the way:
PM opening 100 packs: 
PM opening 2300 packs: 
gold summies: 
Bonus section
I also had 101 orbs to open, and got a phenomenal 3 gold foil legendaries!
PM opening 101 orbs 
▶️ DTube
▶️ YouTube
I'm still surprised how much people are dumping DEC on the markets. Of the ~88M in circulation, around 65M of that is the steemmonsters accounts reserves, so really only about 23M DEC is in actual circulation. Also for full disclosure, i hold over 10% of that amount which i've purchased on the markets.
The 1M / day for battle rewards reduces by 1% each month, potions cost a lot (as you mentioned), I expect that the orbs will be more in demand in the future, and we've announced many times that nearly every new feature we release going forward will require DEC to be spent...so i don't see how any of that equals "sell your DEC".
Perhaps it's people converting to STEEM to buy cards on the market, in which case that will be going away very soon when we allow people to buy cards with DEC on the market directly. I guess we'll find out. In the meantime, i'm buying!
not financial advice!
Yeah, I think a lot of the DEC selling is getting into STEEM to buy cards and getting into STEEM to eventually cash out. I don't know what the percentages are. Opening the market to DEC directly will be a big help I think.
If people buy the remaining Orbs at the 100 + 10 promotion rate, that still will cost 341 million DEC. Some are given away as mystery potion rewards, but those cost DEC too. Net-net, there's a whole lot of demand coming to the pipe.
greetings, grand @nealmcspadden
Congratulations for all this packs open. I am buying 100 beta packs to open. Now, i have 63. I will open when i reach exactly 100. I will use 100% gold and legendary potions
tell me a thing please , how much steem did you used to buy all of this and how much was yout profit on it??
thank you and have a nice day
#spt #battle #steemace #steemleo #palnet
It was about 5k USD all together. Profit is
0 to 2k depending on which market value you find important.
Epic opening!
Switched to 2x about half way through and got Neal on helium.
Pretty cool they are going to be grouped up for folks to play with, I like that a lot.
If ever a video deserved 2x treatment, it is this one lol
It's awesome opening such a big number of packs.
Posted using Partiko Android
ahmagerd... the flippening is real!
maybe I should put my focus back from space on to the O.G. mongshter biz...
I actually watch it all at work today via YT and was amazed how lucky those pulls were! Every time you would get a Legendary Summoner, it made me want to buy a couple of hundred packs! I tried opening 100 packs with the same potions and was not nearly as lucky; I even feel that something went wrong that time because I did not notice the increase in rates in Legendaries and even less so in gold foils.
Yeah, the thing about these potions is that they take large numbers to work. On average, you'll get 2 more golds. But that's just on average.
RNG, she is a harsh mistress.
Glad I could give you some entertainment on the job though!