You can follow patterns throughout history. No doubt, they repeat themselves. Some are more exaggerated than others. Some seem to occur out of nowhere. But it always seems so obvious when you look back in the pages of history and seems impossible to recognize when you’re right in the middle of it. So where are we now?
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The Fed - Consumer Credit - G.19
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/
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I find it shocking how people are getting themselves into debt. I've seen more Lamborgini's and Ferraris driving around than at any time in my life and you can bet that most of them are on lease deals. People seem to have forgotten how to be careful with money, perhaps because interest rates have been low for a generation of people, or people have forgotten what it's like to have crippling debt.
Most people don't ever look at the total cost of borrowing money, only whether they can afford the monthly payments.
As long as their next paycheque will cover the costs, that's as far as they look!
Ok, I'll say it again. This is just 1 economic indicator of the thousands that are out there. I'm just trying to highlight the weakness in the economy, vs the stock market price. Clearly this is not natural.
We're basically putting our entire trust, our pensions, our retirement accounts, our children's education funds, all in the hands of the central bankers who have caused the crisis in the first place. The ones who secretly collude to manipulate interest rates, stock prices, giving loans all around the world.
Sounds like a smart plan!...
Commodities are waiting for big jump up - it happens very often before stocks crash:
Good charts.
With all that cheap money, businesses find it easier to increase their profit with M&A because you save on administrative costs, etc. It is much harder for them to increase profits with extra sales because of the demographic trend. If you add up the stock buybacks, that's why you get a price-to-sale ratio chart that is up the moon. Unfortunately, it will have to come down at one point.