A cycle to which we may now be prone:
- Rising income causes fertility to plummet.
- A few generations later, plummeting fertility causes the economy to collapse.
- Centuries are required to rebuild, because economic progress isn’t automatic, and because economic collapse generally does terrible things to our institutions, knowledge, morale, and understanding of economics. But eventually we do rebuild.
- Incomes rise. Go to 1.
I think Malthus's concerns were very legitimate for that time when population growth was getting ahead of food production. His theory was that population would continue to increase geometrically and food would have a more linear growth. This would eventually lead to food shortages or mass starvation.
The Roman Empire experienced lower birth rates as their civilisation developed just as the developed countries are currently experiencing now. The circumstances of course were remarkably different but the relationship is interesting. I don't think Rome can be used as an example to test the @honeybee hypothesis.
Income and fertility appear to an inverse relationship. I would imagine that fertility is also correlated to a number of other factors as well. These factors would include medicine, technology, political stability, education, sanitation, diet, etc. It would be nice to run a regression to determine which factor is the most responsible for declining fertility.
Step 2 is a very powerful statement. A larger older population supported by a smaller younger population certainly puts a strain on growth. I am hoping that technology might be sufficient to overcome a workforce shortage. Jacques Fresco (developed the Venus Project) had the vision that each person may only need to work a maximum of 2 hours a week. His ideas are very interesting but currently not workable.
Step 3 looks like the dark ages. This is entirely possible if you think of the world working in cycles. It really depends on how long these cycles last. The previous dark ages lasted a long time.
Step 4: This is like how ancient Rome, Egypt, and Greece plummeted into the dark ages and centuries later other countries replaced them as the new modern economies. These new economies can suffer a similar fate and then be replaced by other economies centuries from now.
I think @honeybee's hypothesis is very interesting but probably needs to be fleshed out further to establish some better ideas regarding correlation and causation.
Rising income does not cause birth rates to plummet. Education does.
Example #1:
In the US, the more education a couple has, the fewer children they tend to have.
Example #2:
In less developed countries it has been determined that the most effective way to reduce poverty and overpopulation is educating women. An educated woman is far less likely to get pregnant early on, or accidentally, instead prioritizing her own health and financial security first, then deciding to have children later.
dear @honeybee,your post ia really teachable. We can learn from your post. Keep sharing your skill dear.
I do not think we rebuild actually, because after all no one asks you to be honest. They just maintain you while you maintain them for no reason at all :)
Interesting study graphs