I wanted to share my controversy thoughts about Brexit and some economic consequences.
I read everywhere about the scenarios about a potential Brexit and I think that one thing is certain. Nobody knows what will happen.
The economic impact of Brexit will depend on a number of tough decisions in the UK and Europe. This includes whether the EU itself will embrace reform and whether UK will become the deregulated, free trading economy it would need to become outside the EU. Official trade statistics show that the European Union is the destination for about half of all British goods exports. The trading links are bigger if we include the countries that the United Kingdom trades freely with because they have a free trade agreement with the European Union. These agreements mean that 63% of Britain’s goods exports are linked to European Union membership. It is highly probable that a favorable trade agreement would be reached after Brexit as there are advantages for both sides in continuing a close commercial arrangement.
A potential Brexit, would most probably mean that slowly the European Union will dissolve. There has always been a strange in my view correlation between the British pound (GBP) and Housing Prices in the UK. I am saying strange because I would expect when GBP is cheap, investors would normally use their GBP to buy houses. Well this historically is almost never the case. Whenever the GBP falls, housing prices also fall and vice versa (with a time lag of course). Well now again same thing applies. The GBP is hit from a potential Brexit and the UK shows serious signs of a housing crisis whereby developers are selling houses 30% below construction costs. At the same time the Government imposed new taxes of 3% for 2nd houses.
Here is my controversy take to all these. I think that if the UK leaves the EU the GBP will get stronger and the Housing prices will recover. I think that there is an exaggeration of a potential Brexit exactly because of fear that the EU will dissolve shortly thereafter. The GBP may become the safe haven currency vs. the EURO of a problematic EU. The UK economy is not like the Greek economy. The UK may actually benefit from leaving the EU in many ways.
I think that in the end the decision to stay in the EU is more a political one than economic one. If UK leaves and others follow (Italy, Spain and Greece), there will be no longer EU.
I really don’t know what is worse. Being part of a EU that different rules apply to different nations but on the same time these nations call themselves equal members of a Union or breaking up the EU and deregulate and free the economies? We all know I hope by now how unfavorably the EU treated and continue to treat Greece. The politicians sacrificed a nation in the name of the EU. The Greek people had a referendum for a Grexit or not (even if the politicians mask it otherwise), they voted to get out and the government came back with 5 times worse austerity measures. How fair is that? On the other side, a Grexit would have most probably be suicidal for the Greeks.
If the EU breaks up the risk of war would become very likely. So what is better? The current economic war between the nations that pretend each other’s to be friends or real war with guns? Should the UK leave the EU or not? What do you think will happen if it does?
(Regarding Greece): Most Greeks know that the future can't get any worse, so they couldn't be threatened with "worse conditions". Whatever they were promised would happen if the country exited the euro, happened by remaining in it. The people know what's in their best interest, yet the government took the referendum result and threw it in the garbage. This is bullshit. The EU is all threats... same for EU-friendly trojan horse camps in each country. The British are told what will happen to them if they leave, yet none of it is true. As it wasn't when Norway voted NO regarding joining:
...all lies.My view is that if the Uk had adopted the Euro, then Brexit would be a fantasy today. The Euro is very strong competitive currency on the ascent. But they don't have that. There is no good reason for them not to exit, after more than two decades sitting on the sideline.
My belief is the monetary union will hold together ( it has too ). But there could be new a treaty after a Brexit -- there seems to be one each decade or so -- in order to keep member states happy.
The right to tax people that have not been directly elected will not be accepted by austere people for much longer.
My first ever post on SteemIt, today, on the 1st day of Brexit negotiations had to be a theme post :-D Check it out -> https://steemit.com/introduceyourself/@funnyface/welcome-to-funny-face-day-1-of-brexit-negotiations