Possible Outcomes:
1.)Actuals come in higher than Considered/Predicted: Bearish drop, no relief rally at all
Worst outcome is actual numbers come in higher than all 3 Considered/Predicted. This would mean FED could even throw a 1.00 Bps hike on the table, certainly will be .75 hike if not 1.00, and inflation is not showing any semblance of trend downward.
2.) Actuals come in at/near predicted: Bullish relief rally, but then drop closer towards rate hike
Another outcome is If actuals come in at predictions, trend of inflation moving downward is "confirmed" (not really in my mind, 2 months is not much to go by) and markets rally leading up until fed rate hike where "Ol Powell boy slaps on a 1.00 bps hike because it's necessary.
3.)Actuals come in lower than Considered/Predicted: Strong Bullish Relief Rally leading up to rate hike where Powell slaps on 1.00 bps.
Other outcome is actuals come in below predictions, downward trend of inflation is "confirmed" and markets will get to "speculate again" that the Fed may only hike by .50 bps, but fed will still hike by at least .75bps.
The actuals that come in on this data release tomorrow will likely decide upon how delusional the markets will be able to get, which will lead to another bear market relief rally. We still have major macro economic headwinds that are stamping risk-on investment in a large way. I've listed them all many times, they are all the same as last month, and the month before.
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