I came across an interesting thread on reddit HERE where the author breaks down a potential yield estimation for EOS and and the airdrop model. If his, in his words, "low" estimates are correct, this would lead to much higher EOS token prices in the future.
In doing my own due diligence, all of the models in EOS are pointing to a higher price due to market forces. Such as 1. airdrops 2. the token leasing model (similar to Steemit) and 3. DAPP resource allocation where your tokens need to be locked up taking supply out of circulation.
As for airdrops, the author, u/Hornkild points out the following:
"First according to coinmarketcap there are 789 issued tokens and 86% of them (679) were issued on the Ethereum blockchain.
Secondly, 653 of the 789 tokens have a market capitalization average of $77.6M or $58.9M w/o EOS itself. Here I removed the remaining 136 tokens that currently don't have a known Circulating Supply by CMC.
Then, let's imagine that EOS hosts 30% of all future crypto projects and that 70% of these project airdrop tokens to EOS holders. To me this is a very low estimate, but still we can reasonably expect 789 * .3 * .7 = 165 airdrops to be distributed on EOS over the next 12 to 15 months - the period over which the tokens were issued.
Now suppose that these projects have an average value of $58M (reference above), what would be the price of a single airdroped token ? with 1 billion EOS tokens of circulating and with 1-to-1 basis token distribution then the average value of a token would be $0.058.
So basically a portfolio of 1000 EOS today (eq. $13,570) could yield to its owner over the next 12 to 15 months 1000 * 165 * $0.058 = $9,570 which is a massive +70% ! and this is without taking into account the appreciation of the price of the EOS token."
Seems like a reasonable estimate to me...but everyone is just guessing as to where this will all go and time will tell.
Once we get past all of the FUD surrounding the launch, which will likely take more time than was originally estimated, the future will become obvious....slow expensive wasteful mining. Or the opposite - where Block Producers are rewarded for not only building blocks, but adding value to the chain.
I am Lord @matthewwarn and I have Stackitis...but there are worse problems to have in life...like selling early into small "news".
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I need to find a way to get over the 100 token threshold for airdrops....😪
I think everyone that thinks Steem will work long term should hold EOS since it’s scope is much more broad and has more upside. My guess would be that the 100 token limit will go away on the EOS main chain because there are no gas fees like on ETH....free transactions is the whole point 💪🏼💰🚀😎
But everything I’ve read states that if you don’t hold atleast 100 tokens you won’t get any airdrops....😪
Hopefully with the 0 fee transactions, this will change. I'm guessing it will...fingers crossed.
Interesting analysis. I think the price of EOS will bounce around all over during the release as there are bound to be teething problems.
Is your estimated value of tokens based on price at issue? Most ICOs seem to have a decent value, then plummet shortly after release. Is it best to sell tokens on issue? Or to hold tokens? Decisions!
Im not sure...my plan is to sell half of the less popular ones and keep the other half in case I’m wrong and it moons....on the bigger/better ones with more upside, I’ll probably hold on to those
"Stackitis" You're hilarious man, love it.
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Interesting find and really hard to asses. For one, the icos on ETH didn't deliver anything working yet. And i feel the very ambitious rating are passed us atm. So if EOS is available to deliver, successful airdrops should provide much higher evaluation. If you look at EOSDac, there was a similar analysis on reddit which resulted in and hypothetical token value of 70c calculated, which at the moment would be a dividend-equivalent of 5%. Of course for one airdrop alone (which might not be the smallest but also not the largest).