Here are my goal expectancies for EPL matches in GW27.
The numbers
The methods used to generate these are:
- Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
- Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)
The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.
Copy/pastable table version
| Home | Away | Home GE | Away GE | Tot G | G Sup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | Arsenal | 1.850365751 | 0.9845172487 | 2.834883 | 0.8658485023 |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | 1.593716672 | 0.9295690665 | 2.523285738 | 0.6641476051 |
| Stoke | Brighton | 1.273206378 | 1.034644436 | 2.307850814 | 0.2385619425 |
| Swansea | Burnley | 0.8799468353 | 1.087382315 | 1.96732915 | -0.2074354792 |
| West Ham | Watford | 1.438172618 | 1.348302151 | 2.786474769 | 0.089870467 |
| Man City | Leicester | 2.797638475 | 0.8335732543 | 3.631211729 | 1.964065221 |
| Huddersfield | Bournemouth | 1.11890655 | 1.314147638 | 2.433054188 | -0.195241088 |
| Newcastle | Man United | 0.8960910363 | 1.603134872 | 2.499225908 | -0.7070438357 |
| Southampton | Liverpool | 1.119369642 | 1.838070687 | 2.957440329 | -0.7187010448 |
| Chelsea | West Brom | 1.85392972 | 0.5641808446 | 2.418110564 | 1.289748875 |
Summary
- My banker for this week is Man City with a goal supremacy value of 1.96.
- I predict the highest scoring game to be Man City vs Leicester with a total Goal Expectancy of 3.63 (most likely scores are 2-0, 3-0, 2-1 in that order)
- Swansea vs Burnley looks to be the lowest scoring game with a Goal Expectancy of just 1.96. 0-0 is a real possibility!
Bet of the week
Chelsea vs West Brom
Analysis: Chelsea have conceded 7 goals in the last two games against mid-table teams, so they'll be trying to make sure they keep a clean sheet at home to low-scoring WBA. Likely scores are 1-0, 2-0 in a game that Conte will be desperate to win after recent poor results. 7/11 of Chelsea's home games had 2 goals or fewer, while 9/13 of WBA's away games had the same.
Bet: 1pt Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.19 (Dafabet)
Finally, the Asian Handicap picks I've gone for in @costanza's awesome weekly competition are:
Tottenham Under 3.25
Everton -0.25
Burnley +0.25
Newcastle +0.75
Chelsea Under 2.75
Thanks for reading, and good luck with your FPL and/or bets this week!
Adam (acelad)
, resteem 
and
Bet of the week result:
Hazard with two excellent finishes for the 1st and 3rd goals, and a fortunate deflection for the 2nd meant I had to settle for a loss here. WBA gave Chelsea too much space around the edge of the area, and weren't able to reproduce the defending they showed when winning a 0-0 draw at Anfield in December, for example.
Great stuff,
Good luck in the contest acelad !
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