⚽️ English Premier League Goal Expectancies & Bet of the week (Gameweek 31) ⚽️

[acelad]

The numbers

The methods used to generate these are:

• Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
• Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)

The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.

Copy/pastable table version

Home	Away	Home GE	Away GE	Tot G	G Supr
Bournemouth	West Brom	1.470223986	0.9630834955	2.433307481	0.5071404901
Huddersfield	Crystal Palace	1.184422413	1.092638388	2.277060801	0.091784025
Stoke	Everton	1.30252084	1.24535653	2.54787737	0.0571643095
Liverpool	Watford	2.348954315	0.8818099201	3.230764235	1.467144395

Summary

• My banker of the week is Liverpool with a goal supremacy value of 1.47
• The highest scoring game is expected to be Liverpool vs Watford with a total goal expectancy value of 3.23
• There are two tight games this week, the tightest game being Stoke vs Everton with a goal supremacy value of just 0.06

Bet of the week

Due to the reduced number of games, there's no bet of the week. Based on my goal expectancies, Watford +2/+2.5 on the handicap looks good value, but the recent 3-0 loss against Arsenal puts me off enough not to tip it. Are Watford getting complacent?

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your FPL and bets this week!

Adam (acelad)

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Comments

[roscar9]

I think that Salah will score at least a goal and the much is going to be over 2.5 goals. I don't really think that Watford's defense can compete with Liverpool's attack.

[costanza]

Thanks for the weekly info Acelad !

For as far as I understand it's better to choose a 50/50 payout as long as the SBD are worth over 1$ on the market. Around 38% of your payout would be worth twice as much and could be used on the market to get more SP in return.

Good Luck !

[acelad]

Thanks @costanza, I'll take that advice on board for my future posts :).

[beat-the-bookies]

Too many games being postponed this weekend, let's see what can we make out of those that are still playing:

(OG3+ = BTTS&Over2.5 | DA = Yes)

The game that worries me the most is the Liverpool's. Such a talented and powerful squad, but they perform a bit randomly. When you expect them to do a routine job, they screw it up. When you give up on them, they start destroying their opponents,... I have the love-hate relationship with them :-)

[acelad]

As a Liverpool fan I know what you mean all too well! Playing a "mid-table" team at Anfield tends to go one of three ways:

• (50%) We dominate high up the pitch, create early chances, sustain pressure, and win comfortably by 2+ goals
• (30%) We are forced into playing a slow tempo, patient build-up due to the opposition shape. By 60' if things haven't changed the players start making bad decisions (shooting from outside the area instead of dribbling/passing for a better chance). These kinds of games have a decent chance of ending a draw, and I can usually tell if it's going to be one of those days shortly after HT if there's no reaction from the players.
• (20%) We are holding a 1-goal lead late in the game, letting the opponent have the ball a lot more than the rest of the game. We're just one defensive mistake away from a draw here, and you can tell the players have that in their minds. Note: This has actually improved a lot as the season has gone on, and with the arrival of Van Dijk.

Good luck with your bets, I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see you make a profit on those :).

[beat-the-bookies]

Good luck with your bets, I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see you make a profit on those :).

Thanks mate!
As they say... even a broken clock is right twice a day :-)

[acelad]

Bournemouth one is a winner, and the Stoke-Everton 1-1 was close! 84th min winner from Everton to make it 1-2. Maybe if they didn't have a red card they might have held on.

(50%) We dominate high up the pitch, create early chances, sustain pressure, and win comfortably by 2+ goals

Liverpool were firmly in this scenario today, which as a fan I was happy to see, but not so good for your BTTS bet!

Huddersfield were very disappointing, and despite a couple decent wins recently, they'll need to avoid losing at home to teams like Crystal Palace if they want to avoid relegation.

[beat-the-bookies]

I agree :-)

I've expected more of Huddersfieled (and less of Crystal Palace). The moment I've stopped supporting Crystal Palace, they decided to win :-)

[hassanbenali]

good article @acelad
thank you for sharing
resteem

[bobmarli]

Oke frend restem @bobmarli oke and vote

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