It takes experience and a refined trader's psychology to run when everyone is buying and sell when everyone is bailing. Elliot Wave theory is a social finance discipline that tracks the 'price fractal' of sentiment. And this is the school I come from. I may be taken as bold here but I just entered my last long in Ether with $133 on Poloniex as my stop and $207 as the target. But this is the top of a fifth of a fifth in a large wave 1. The support for 2 corresponding to that wave 1 will likely fall between $20-45 based on preliminary calulations for a $207 top. If we break $133 I'll start to look at short positions. This long position is sized way down from my typical positions. Trading the last mile is never advised but for the experienced. I'm ready to bail.
There are other telling signs of a top. Elliot Wave Trader, the site I learned all this 'stuff' has an analyst, Dr. Cari who uses internet searches to make calls in gold and the SP500. She, herself, is a trader of the S+P futures but does so as a doctor in psychology. She posted a special warning to all us crypto traders on the site, that ethereum was popping up in the top search terms. Typical when fervor is at its peak. She never saw that before. A colleague at the electronics company I work at last week asked me about ethereum. He heard about it at a cocktail party. I got him in at $80 and change but now am telling him to sell almost 100% higher. I'm on a biz trip in Korea and I sent him an urgent message....GET THE HELL OUT! And, when did he enter? Last week. That was quck....the end is nigh, at least for this round....
All this is mathematicsto me. Price moves of a certain magnitude begat price moves of related magnitude, like a pendulum swing. Per my updates this move extended far beyond the expectations I had but I still must view this as a terminal move and all the social signs are highlighting the likelihood. But as always we make a forecast and see what the market does.....let's watch and see. But be careful out there.
A reference on how I trade: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@wildtrader/how-i-trade-cryptos-using-elliot-wave-theory
Disclaimer:
Trading crytpos is like swimming with sharks. These are unregulated markets. While I'm providing some analysis, the risk is all yours. You can get hacked, raided, and scalped. These markets can be thin and predators lurk. Do not put any money in cryptos than you can afford to lose. Always use two factor authentication on your accounts. And, regularly take profits out and trade something else
ETH: 0x214100463968649031A9D6E6A6C5B9aDdE540e29
BTC: 14Y4V2hFUKzQZe3rVJ8cTphv583FiRvgqS
The master speaketh. Totally agree my friend, sold all mine but a few coins between 120 and 180.... cant wait to buy more below 50.
I've entered a more spread out position across a larger numbers of alts. I prefer a don't sell crypto approach which has worked very well over past years. assuming that eth will recover from a future correction and move higher after that, I use periods of red to just stock up on more, following the markets price. In the end you've bought the average price of the U curve. which gives you a double leg-up in the next round.
did you move back into btc or usd?
I moved into USD Chris, It's been a crazy couple months being vigilant with these things and i just need a little mental break. I have positions in several coins but took my size down dramatically... 2 I like best right now are FCT and STEEM...
yeah I know that feel mate, only time I ever sold btc was because I wanted to go on holiday without checking polo 24/7..
I'm scaling in with a BTC short. Could lose my shirt on this position. Scary strong, but we're in a top zone via the fib calcs I use. We'll see. I'm with you on shorts. As rhanna, a fellow Elliot Wave Trader member knows, we've tried to do some short term shorts in Ether down below and ran for the hills. Fortunately, we've been riding it up from around $10 when the bull confirmed reassertion. But this is a key zone. I'm not rushing to short. But I don't mind taking some shots with small positions. If they take, I'll press it.
Sold most Ether and bought Steem, thanks for the heads up.
Would you mind taking a look at Litecoin? I feel it's had a quite few weeks in comparison to others?
abh- if you look at my posts, you'll see my last Litecoin update. My ideal wave iv is $16 with $12 being the bull market bottom line and if that holds the calculations yield a target in the $60's. That said, the 1H bar structure is going non standard, non impulse that is usually required in a final c wave. So, we either bottomed in a shallow correction, or we have an ending diagonal, an elliot wave pattern that will hit the target but drag due to a bull bear battle (and the bulls win after taking a hit). But I need to see more structure to be sure. I'll post if I'm convinced the bulls are gonna pull this upward pre-maturally.
Great i'll have a look, happy holding LTC and Steem for longer term but would be nice to catch some peaks and troughs too.
Difficulty is getting into USD with sizeable position.. as selling limits on all exchanges.. Any thoughts?
For going short? Well, I wouldn't go crazy yet. I don't see a clear short setup yet. I'll post one if I see one. But yes, it's hard to short. Have you tried Kraken?