Bitcoin's spring rise broke it out of the upwards channel it had been in since the beginning of 2015. We are now approaching a fork in the road.
You can see the breakout happened at the beginning of May when Bitcoin rose sharply to about $3k. Since that rise, it has been slowly moving downwards in a triangle pattern.
A closer look at the fork in the road
The edge of the triangle is coming up in about a week from today. If we break higher, we could head back up to test the $3k level. If we break lower, the next level of resistance is down near $1,800. That represents about a 25% correction. What happens when bitcoin goes down....alt coins go down as well!
I'm still HODL though, I'll be waiting to see which way we break from that triangle. I would like to think with segwit approaching, Bitcoin will move higher. But, segwit may also worry Bitcoin holders to the point of getting out of it until after Segwit is finished in August.
Ether
Ether has been in the same bullish channel since the beginning of 2017. The chart below is Ether/USD on GDAX.
Ether is approaching the lower end of the channel, with a resistance of around $250. We are now below the 50 day moving average, Ether hasn't stayed below that for long before it's next leg up.
How does the BTC/Ether chart look?
Bitcon/Ether has also been in the same channel since late 2016.
We are approaching the resistance in that channel as well, with the short term resistance around 0.104 BTC per Ether. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has done a great job of finding bottoms in the BTC/Ether chart the past few months. When the RSI drops into the 30s, we seem to be at the bottom. The RSI is in the mid 40s right now, so that does make me slightly worried.
How is the ultra pessimistic @FinancialCritic trading this?
- I'm HODL and might even BUYL more Ether. But, I am worried about the number of big ICOs we just had and what those companies are going to do with their Ether holdings. If they decide to sell large amounts, we could crash through the bottom of the channel.
- I'm HODL a small position in BTC and watching to see if we bounce or break the resistance level before making any large movements.
- The BTC chart is so much more important between the two for me. BTC drags other coins up or down with it. If BTC breaks lower, then I would be looking to dump my non-Ether coins and get into only USD and Ether. If BTC breaks higher, then it's time to make it rain.
This post received a 4.0% upvote from @randowhale thanks to @financialcritic! For more information, click here!
As of this writing, Ethereum is dancing on the bottom of that channel at ~$263.
I'm conflicted...
I would really love to get me some $200 ETH action, but I don't want to put up with people saying "ETH is dead, etc." because of it. I guess we'll see!
Yeah, it's right on the edge of the channel. I'll be checking the price of Ether only every 15 minutes today!
I'm really conflicted whether to invest in Bitcoin now or wait a few weeks for the price to reach stability. Nice work on the post, we're in for an interesting few weeks to say the least.
Thanks for the analysis. Will be watching closely in July to see what happens
Great analysis! Thank you!
yes, I am scared...
Thanks for the analysis
Insightful
Even if you believe that technical analysis can give a big insight on crypto price development, it's barely helpful for exceptional situations like BIP and segwit2x
Technical analysis is just 1 part of figuring out how to trade. Fundamentals/news is obviously a big piece as well. That being said, it is important to watch key levels.
Where would falling below the 1.8K USD support lead us?
Congratulations! This post has been upvoted from the communal account, @minnowsupport, by FinancialCritic from the Minnow Support Project. It's a witness project run by aggroed, ausbitbank, teamsteem, theprophet0, and someguy123. The goal is to help Steemit grow by supporting Minnows and creating a social network. Please find us in the Peace, Abundance, and Liberty Network (PALnet) Discord Channel. It's a completely public and open space to all members of the Steemit community who voluntarily choose to be there.
If you like what we're doing please upvote this comment so we can continue to build the community account that's supporting all members.