it is so hard to say on BTC in my eyes.... like you said - more and more people buy in long-term. I think there is a shortage coming way in front of next half reward (what is already in less than 3 years - lol).
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True. Another factor that Tech analysis can't take into account... is economical demand. But as long as the centralized financial market is kept on life support (federal reserve/plunge protection team)...The big money crypto players will carry out tech analysis and market correction is business as usual. Obviously if we get the 70% correction the stock market is over due for...then Crypto will explode to unbelievable highs overnight.