Well, that I don't have an exact answer to since there are so many variables that can have a huge effect on the market. FUD could be considered a variable and even exchanges getting hacked.
What variable would you say affects the cryptomarket the most?
I'm not sure (since I have a degree in maths this is something I will look in the near future, btw, you know of any source of raw bitcoin data e.g. a spreadsheet updated every day on the web?) I just hope its not a misuse matter (with all the meanings around the word 'misuse' that apply) rather than 'interests'... nice to meet you!
I'm not sure how much of raw bitcoin data you are looking for but I'm sure this will suffice. There are more out there that might be more detailed...Maybe https://tradeblock.com/bitcoin/