I've been thinking about this for a while.
When the new packs for Splinterlands come out, I expect, most will open those packs with potions.
Potions need to be bought with DEC.
It takes 45k DEC to get the +100% legendary chance and the +100 gold foil chance potions for 500 cards.
That's 45K DEC for every 100 packs.
Currently, I can find 45k Untamed pack tokens in Steem-Engine.
But after asking around in the Maverick channel the estimate will be closer to 175k Untamed packs (from a total of 1,5 million) that will be given to players in 2-3 weeks from now.
That's unsurprising really considering the Kickstarter raised 3 hundred thousand dollars.
How much DEC do we need for all those packs?
(175,000 packs / 100 packs) * 45K DEC = 78,75 million DEC.
Compared to the total current supply (93 million) of DEC that is a lot!
top 20 DEC holders
There are some unforeseen factors though.
175,000 packs will create 875,000 Untamed cards.
Some of those might be burned for DEC increasing the DEC supply.
I'm not sure how to calculate that in.
Another unforeseen factor can be the STEEM price.
DEC has proven to be pretty stable vs STEEM (DEC going up with STEEM going down).
I'm assuming this also will happen the other way around.
STEEM can go up and that would most likely mean DEC going down vs STEEM.
And in that case, buying DEC can prove a costly mistake.
It's an interesting dynamic.
Another factor can, of course, be that pack owners will simply open the packs without potions. It's unlikely but could happen.
Conclusion
Because I'm pretty convinced the demand for DEC will go up I made sure I have a decent amount of it but I am also a little bit fearful to get more because of the mentioned unforeseen factors.
We should know more in 2 -3 weeks.
It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out.
Another factor is that the higher tier from the kickstarter will receive potions at the same time as part of the stretch benefits from the fundraiser. Smaller contributors may be less likely to use dec for potions as they are lower levels or haven't used them before.
I've never used a potion before but can't wait to try them out.
Will be interesting to see what happens.
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That’s useful info! Thanks missed that one!
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Ok, looked it up. if you pledged $45 or more you get this. That covers 240 packs.
Thanks, man!
It's our pleasure to help reward this growing community!
Greetings, @exyle
You are correct, man. It was my tought some days ago. I will decs price will rise when this untamed packs are able to open.
I am buying some decs now to guarantee thiss
thank you and have a nice day
Please. How do I start this awesome game 😂😂😂
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https://splinterlands.io/
Wow. That's all.? I will join you guys soon 😊
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https://splinterlands.io/
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Thanks for your response. I really appreciate. I will look into it now. Thanks 😊
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I think I'm pretty safe, I heard that anyone who bought the $1000 Kickstarter will get lots of free potions.... I'm glad I purchased a package :)
You will get a few indeed! Nice!
I didn't like the price of DEC slowly creeping down so I started to HODL it. I sure hope you are right and the price booms. Still though, I wouldn't mind if steem boomed instead making my DEC not as valuable.
HODLing all DEC for now. At silver league its not anything crazy, but still, I like the steem I get from exchanging it.
I'm holding too and selling a little of the top for STEEM.
This is a great Splinterlands post! You are right, I bet DEC will skyrocket! The free potions from rewards will help us out some, LOL! I am going to give this awesome post a SM upvote. Have a great day in Splinterlands!
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Thank you!
Hi, @exyle!
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Also consider that maybe not all of those packs will be opened. (I heard from multiple people that they want to hodl their packs)
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I think the big spenders are likely to hold allot of their packs. Plus lots of free potions will be handed out to the big spenders.
We then have the group of players that don't bother using potions at all (I haven't purchased a single potion yet).
I think it comes down to how much of the packs do the big spenders plan on opening vs. holding. In the end I do agree that we should see a rise in price or possibly we get back to 1000 DEC - $1USD like it was for months.
Current DEC price drop was likely due to players selling for Fundition packages.
Well I bought potions and I didn't got any profit from them yet while the video and post stated he got lots of benefit from them. Is using potions benefitianary you must think. Or I'm just that unlucky. Maybe I'm just that unlucky.
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Luck does play a big part. It should even out the more you use potions, so in the longer term, they might be worth using. I just like getting lucky without them :)
That post let readers see if you buy potions you get more out of it then you invest so it would be a earning model. But if you think of it no one gives things away for free. Well no company does. So I bought the potions to try and at the end just stopped playing and youtube streaming steemmonsters as a side result first was because I'm sick terrible Legpain. It is a bit getting better after earthing myself.
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I hope your leg is better soon.
I open most of my packs without potions. Its like a lottery, I might have worse odds but I can still win. Maybe not the most profitable strategy but I don't like buying DEC with Steem and I like buying packs instead of potions. I can also hodl the packs and sell when they go up in value.
Interesring fact to know, I will note that.
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I haven't been impressed with the potions at all. I feel like I have better odds when I don't use them. I haven't run down the statistics, but the legendary potion was a giant waste of my resources. I should have used that DEC to buy orbs instead. I probably would have gotten just as many legendaries.