I make "zero" assumptions as I only listen to what the markets themselves tell me. There is nobody that I have found yet at this particular venue that is worth listening to as far as the cryptocurrencies go. Not that I have found anyway. In fact....99.9999% of the people here who post about them speak in "generalities." I'm confident I am the ONLY person at this site that not only tells you exactly what will happen next...but I most definitely am the only one who provides both upside and downside targets. You can read any of my spews to verify.
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I can tell you unfortunately... you aren't the only one... Sorry to burst your bubble.
Crypto markets are volatile and can't "tell" you anything... as it has been seen in these recent months.
If the crypto markets didn't tell you anything the daytrade sim I posted wouldn't have generated a gain of $956 per coin over 20 straight days of trading. I did that with 1 buy per day...and then set a limit to sell $50 higher. So one in- one out over 20 days whilst bitcoin was in "buy" mode. I also would not be generating gains at my GBTC trading blog by shorting. And I missed the "exact" high for it on the Th before Memorial day because I was out until 2:30 PM EST. So don't tell me what bitcoin alone can't tell me. I will tell you this. ALL of the cryptos will follow the path of bitcoin.
Not all... but most will follow its trend.
Also... most "traders" in crypto lose over time... you would know that if you weren't new to this 😉👍🏼.
I've made money by following trends and buying/selling for specific altcoins, but guess what, eventually that trend ends and the coin becomes unpredictable.