Since Fed need to raise interest rates as much possible before the end of year, so that they can target to start decreasing in 2023 to print more playing the same old playbook from decades long, the expectation is if the mood set in sept reflected in stock market, it will directly impact crypto market too.
on top of that from sept onwards winter will be tough on EU, ECB is also discussing to raise rate to 75%, and who knows in subsequent months too so they can also catch up on the same game that Fed is playing to raise as much this year and start lowing next year to print more money, things can go really bad if such things plays out.
real-estate bubble is already showing cracks, but since it's slow responding as compared to the all other asset classes, we will see how the broken mortgage payments and unpaid credit card payments reflects on economy.
in latest event in J Hole many Fed presidents of different states agreed on hawkishness nature of Powell, and some were also seemed OK with increased unemployment on set target and even if that target is breached. That means, result of interest increase to control inflation is much important than unemployment for the Fed, since they can always just print more money next year to save these unemployed people and write off their debt or portion of debts in various forms and categories, just to pass it on to the same people in form of new kinds of taxes and enforce them heavily with guns and raids. It really looks ugly future thinking all of this.
my current full time work is kind of assessing the risk and just manage my portfolio risk 😅
I'll see if I survive and still get to keep some by next year or not. Things are already very tough.
all in all, I see even if the merge news starts increasing the price of ETH or crypto in general, there can be other things which can manage to hit the price of ETH and other cryptos down.
SEC is one of them, which wants crypto to be regulated and treated like securities instead. And ETH seems one big target on their list. If happens, that will put sell pressure on it in markets which I expect will quickly be accumulated more by institutions, who already wants a bigger pie of this asset class. So manipulation is also in the game. If things go well after ETH merge, just start expecting that it will be ETH equality being raising dominating in alts pairs right after BTC, and gradually the dominance might shift much over to ETH. very speculative thing to watch, which can be wrong too.
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