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RE: Why @dollarvigillante is wrong about the dollar and inflation

in #finance8 years ago

I'm not saying all of your observations are wrong, but it seems like you're missing the danger of the high degree of leverage (debt) in the current system. What about the 40 year bull market in bonds that has driven rates to below zero in some places? What happens when rates go up? How do you hedge a portfolio against the possibility of inflation? At this point, no one knows if inflation or deflation will define our future, but I need a Plan B. Crazy money printing and credit expansion has generally ended with hyperinflation in past cycles. This time may be different, but how do you hedge a position in case it's not? Looking for an insurance policy, even if the sky isn't falling right now...

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It's all relative. Everyone else has more debt. Also, the US budget deficit has been shrinking, thanks in part to the economy starting to grow. As that continues it should go into surplus, just like it did in the late 90's.

As for inflation - again, that is yesterday's war. We're currently in a global deflationary period and as China devalues against the dollar, while the Chinese might experience some inflation as a result, Americans should experience deflation. Gold looks very overvalued to me at the moment...

We are exporting our inflation to China, and that's something they are not happy about. They have been very successful trading products for dollars, but they are looking for ways to hedge through buying hard assets: oil, copper mines in Africa, other natural resources, airports, ports, etc. - and YES... gold. Big time. Their official reserves are understated, and they are still interested in keeping the price down as they continue to accumulate, as are the world's central banks. However, gold may play a starring role in a global re-set to save the system from a debt implosion.