Written by @brendanwenzel
We have two separate debates with this choice of QBs in a fantasy draft. The first question is whether or not you are willing to pay the price for one of these two QBs. And the second is which one would you choose if you think they are worth the pick.
Currently, the ADP for Aaron Rodgers is sitting at the end of the 2nd round at the 11th pick. Tom Brady is going in the 3rd round with the 3rd pick. This means in order to grab one of these two QBs is going to cost you a top tier RB or WR. Personally, I like to choose my QB towards the end of the draft and then stream the position based on matchups throughout the year. Thinking about drafting a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round is not usually in my plans.
However, when you look at the fact that Aaron Rodgers averaged 30 points a game while the average game for the QB12 was around 21, we're talking a 9 point per week difference. It could be made up with a solid WR or RB, but 9 points is nothing to look past. In the end, it really comes down to your personal strategy.
Now let's dive into who is the better pick. Last year, Aaron Rodgers out produced Tom Brady by a factor of 2 fantasy points per game. They are both about as safe as they come in terms of production. Rodgers is throwing to 2 stud receivers in Jordy Nelson and Devante Adams. While Brady now has Brandin Cooks and should have the Gronk back.
Aaron Rodgers is heavily depended on in the red zone by the Packers. Last year, he threw 33 red zone TDs, according to Pro Football Reference. That's an insane amount of red zone TDs. This offense is high powered and will get in the end zone a lot with Rodgers getting a high % of those TDs.
Tom Brady has just as good of an offense and the Patriots love running up the score. This leads to a lot of fantasy points even when the games are out of hand. Brady is still at the top of his game and will probably prove it once again this year.
If I'm choosing between the two in a draft, I have to say that I'm probably going with Aaron Rodgers. I think there is some risk with Tom Brady's age even though he does still seem to be playing at his peak. His age makes me think that Belichick very well may sit Brady more than usual at the end of games to save his star QB from any unnecessary hits. Rodgers is almost a guarantee to be one of the top 2 fantasy QBs.
Again, no way I draft a QB that high, but if I do, it'll be Aaron Rodgers.