It depends on the distributions of the bets. Most of those 10.4 million bets are mictobets with tiny odds of payout meaning most bets have been a loss and the 1% isn't advantaged.
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Most of the bets have been dust (< 0.001 STEEM) you're right. :)
You can do better! Math isn't debatable, what are odds of this distribution?
I've answered it based on the info I have, but it won't be published until 00:03 GMT tomorrow.