Musselburgh 2.10
15/8 Lady Lavinia, 5/2 Call Him Al,
4/1 My Ukulele, 9/2 Biscuit Queen,
9/1 Flash Sentry.
7f Nursery
2 Strikes against CALL HIM AL
Didn't want him coming up from 5f
But my angles tell me I am wrong
Look at the 2016 winner Ray Donovan
Who won with a very similar profile
My second strike is stamina
CALL HIM AL is far from certain to stay
His sire hasn't had a winner over this far
On balance I would oppose him
But it means a guess
LADY LAVINIA is not much
Her profile is neutral
She offers a lot I like
Such as experience and recent runs
Her numbers are reasonable in context
But not kidding myself she isn't very beatable
BISCUIT QUEEN could easily win
MY UKELELE also has a chance
One option
At 5/2 each way 1/4 the odds 2 places
LADY LAVINIA would be my choice
But she may not be that price
Another is staggered staking
£3 LADY LAVINIA 2/1
£2 BISCUIT QUEEN 4/1
£5 MY UKELELE 5/1
Haven't made a proper case
To make a bet worthwhile here
I don't like Call Him Al
But I have better negatives later
Who are shorter prices in bigger fields
Wolverhampton 2.20
7/4 Ingleby Molly, 5/1 Ahundrednotout, 13/2 Cupid's Arrow,
10/1 Counterfeit, Fantasy Justifier, Passing Star, 12/1 Black Truffle,
14/1 Monsieur Mel, Tink, 20/1 Burauq, Compton Prince,
Low Grade 6f Handicap
PASSING STAR is topweight
But as a 7yo with 1 run since February
He may not have enough to win this
Other statistical problems
Fantasy Justifier a 7yo absent 65 days
Counterfeit a 3yo absent 98 days
Monsieur Mel - 4yo from 5f with an absence
Tink is a badly drawn filly with an absence
CUPID'S ARROW has a chance
Profile is safe enough
His best runs at Catterick on soft
Limited All weather experience
Has never run 6f on sand before
BLACK TRUFFLE - Profile fine
Positives
INGLEBY MOLLY
AHUNDREDNOTOUT
If I am right about Passing Star
AHUNDREDNOTOUT then faces a 0-53
He looks good enough to win in that class
The Betting forecast now looks topsy turvy
AHUNDREDNOTOUT the clear favourite
I would have preferred an each way bet
Now it is a less appealing win and saver
£8 Win Bet AHUNDREDNOTOUT 9/4
£2 Win Bet INGLEBY MOLLY 4/1
Wolverhampton 3.20
5/2 Dress Coat, Legal History, Podemos,
6/1 Jaquar, 14/1 Harawi, 20/1 Don't Look Down,
20/1 First Call, 50/1 Bedivere, 50/1 Charlie D,
50/1 Spectaculis.
12f Novice for 3 year olds
These races are new this year
DRESS COAT is unraced
Wouldn't really want an unraced horse
In similar 12f Novices this year
There were unraced winners
But only in fields of under 7 runners
If you look at 12f Ascot races since 2011
Horses with under 3 career starts
Drawn 6 or higher have a 0-42 record
DRESS COAT fails this quirky angle too
I'd be happy about opposing him
But most of her dangers have absences
Option 1
PODEMOS 5/2 Each Way
This price has now gone
Option 2
PODEMOS 2/1-9/4 Win Bet
LEGAL HISTORY 4/1 Saver Bet
Wolverhampton 4.50
15/8 Stringybark Creek, 9/2 Celtic Artisan, 11/2 Topology,
9/1 Amelia George, Joyful Dream, 11/1 Final Attack,
11/1 Noneedtotellme, 14/1 Indiana Dawn, 25/1 Foxy's Spirit,
25/1 Outlaw Torn, 33/1 Fossa, Sea Tea Dea, Unsuspected Girl.
8f Handicap
Best backed horse - Celtic Artisan 9/2
If was playing in the race
I'd try to corner the topweights
£2.50 on Stringybark Creek 3/1
£2.00 on Topology 5/2
£5.50 on Celtic Artisan 3/1
I have no individual preference
From the above three horses
But if seen as a "Group"
I think they offer the most
Looks Clumsy
But it gets the 3 class horses onside
The rest of these are getting weight
But several have questionable profiles
And haven't run a good number in ages
Tipperary 5.05
9/4 Tenax, 4/1 Lord Rapscallion, 9/2 Backpfeifengesicht,
6/1 Sunday Scholar, 8/1 Sunset Nova, 12/1 Compton's Finale,
12/1 Jarrocho, Lady Marengo, 14/1 Don't Tell Ronan,
20/1 Cozy Sky, 25/1 Cityman, 33/1 All For Power, Frow,
50/1 Dom's Angel.
5f Maiden for 2 year olds
The Racing Post Point out
TENAX has the beating of Lord Rapscallion
On last time out Fairyhouse running
LORD RAPSCALLION didn't stay 6f last time
He has every chance of reversing that form
Complicated race because of the draw
No clear edge is obvious on draw stats
BACKPFEIFENGESICHT has a chance
Another who makes some each way appeal
Unless he drifts and smells wrong
LORD RAPSCALLION does appeal each way
On the grounds this could be his right trip
And he has experience and credible numbers
Newmarket 6.00
7/4 Capla Gilda, 4/1 Fast Endeavour, 6/1 Sharp And Sharper,
6/1 Warrior Display, 7/1 Be Proud, 10/1 My Maharani,
16/1 Too Many Lovers, 20/1 Little Tipple, 33/1 The Galla Girl,
66/1 She Came To Pass.
7f Selling Race for 2 year olds
CAPLA GILDA won over 6f last time
That surprised me as I doubted her stamina
I am surprised they are going up a furlong
Right or Wrong
Am I calling her a doubtful stayer
She has the best form in the race
I couldn't touch her over 7f
Not on rain softened ground
Here is something interesting
Horses aged 2
Sired by Compton Place
Running over 7f
Have a 26-380 record
Nothing much wrong with that
However
When it is good to soft or worse
That record becomes 0-69
That is an incredible difference
Any why this is my favourite sire
Newmarket is Good to Soft good in places
So technically he does fail this
These races are complicated
There is often a hidden hand somewhere
WARRIOR DISPLAY has just 2 runs
Hasn't done enough to interest me
SHARP AND SHARPER can't be ruled out
But can't match him from a 6f Claimer
And his numbers need improving on
BE PROUD is very hard to read
Could win this on one of his runs
But his last 3 runs were underwhelming
Last time he was behind Capla Gilda
He comes from a high class stable
One I often bet in sellers/claimers
One thing that could be significant
Two consecutive races in a row
BE PROUD has been badly drawn
I would upgrade both his last 2 runs
FAST ENDEAVOUR has positives
She looks a solid each way option
But not expensive and will have limitations
MY MAHARANI needs improvement
But she did have excuses last time
I am playing the race this way
Selection
£4 Each Way BE PROUD 11/2
£2 Win Bet FAST ENDEAVOUR 7/2
Tipperary 6.05
7/2 Alfredo Arcano, Rapid Reaction, 4/1 Amthaal,
9/2 Abstraction, 6/1 Fille Du Septembre, 10/1 Dandyman Port,
10/1 Sors.
5F Handicap
ALFREDO ARCANO is rated 90
He faces a 0-81 class field
I like that gap on official ratings
I appreciate he has just gone from 85 to 90
And this is a career high mark today
But on Racing Post Ratings
He has just done a career best run
2 of his last 3 races were career bests
I would play it this way
ALFREDO ARCANO Win Bet 5/2
AMTHAAL 4/1 Saver Bet
None of the others
Offered as much as this pair
Tipperary 7.45
7/4 Julienne, 3/1 Bright Eyed, 6/1 Madame Delavanti,
13/2 Lir, 8/1 Sketching, 10/1 Grasping At Straws,
14/1 Small Wonder, 16/1 Gentility, Loughcallow Lady,
16/1 Miss Louise, 25/1 Leavethekeysinher,
50/1 Balletto, 100/1 Sarah Kate.
Fillies Maiden over 9f
JULIENNE comes from 7f to 9f
She only has a 4 day break
She has raced just once in 10 months
That is far too radical a profile for me
LIR is unraced
Sired by Declaration Of War
Drawn 12 could also be a problem
Tipperary races over 6f and more
No unraced horse has won drawn that high
The obvious choice
BRIGHT EYED is weak in the market
5/2 in the offices
Almost 4/1 on Betfair
I'd let the market settle down
I'd prefer an each way alternative
BRIGHT EYED is one
GASPING AT STRAWS is another
She has been gambled 10/1 into 7/2
Maybe play it this way
GASPING AT STRAWS win bet
BRIGHT EYED saver bet
This game is very nice to see. I think I too play it.