Statistical Analysis Monday 13th August

in #gambling6 years ago

Ballinrobe 5.50

11/4 Vocal Music, 3/1 Spiorad Saoirse,
7/2 Burning Question, 4/1 Still Standing,
11/2 Future Proof, 14/1 Griffyndor

3yo Handicap over 9f 165 yards

VOCAL MUSIC has a lot to prove
Coming from a 7f race up in distance
Having raced only once in 2018
Could not match him to any winner
He's quite exposed anyway with 9 runs
For horse with just 1 run in 9 months
VOCAL MUSIC is not safe enough

BURNING QUESTION also comes from 7f
Thats a 2.5f furlong step up in distance
Horses coming from 7f races this season
Return a 3-68 record in all similar races
Horses coming from 7f races
Running within the last 3 weeks
Return a 0-38 record in these races
BURNING QUESTION fails this 0-38 angle
VOCAL MUSIC fails this 0-38 angle

GRIFFYNDOR looks very beatable
Too much to prove in many areas
FUTURE PROOF has plenty to prove
Not keen on a combination of things
He only has 3 lifetimes runs
Yet has to lumber topweight 9st 10lbs
His numbers suggest he's harshly treated
He's raced just once in 97 days as well
Combination of things raises doubts

Shortlist

STILL STANDING is interesting
Statistically seasonal debutants are fine
There is no reason why he can't win
And he has been the best backed horse

SPIORAD SAOIRSE is running well
Has the best recent numbers in the race
Last time he was drawn 14 of 14 at Galway
Had the worst draw and excuses
He has the most runs this season too
If he gets the trip which he should do
He looks the safest option in the race

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet SPIORAD SAOIRSE 100/30

£2.50 Win Bet STILL STANDING 11/4

Windsor 6.00

2/1 Shorter Skirt, 4/1 Aim Power, 11/2 Petits Fours,
6/1 Engrossed, 8/1 I'm Freezing, 10/1 Laoise,
10/1 Reticent Angel, 16/1 Ip Dip, 20/1 Ireland's Angel,
50/1 Farump, Sandy Heartbeat, Willa's Wish.

2yo Fillies Maiden over 6f

SHORT SKIRT has 2 runs
She sets the standard so far
AIM POWER is next best with 1 run

This pair and drawn 11 and 12
That wouldn't worry me on draw stats
In fact it may be two of their main rivals
Have more to prove with the draw

Unraced horses drawn 8 or higher
Do not win very often over course/distance
They are only 5-239 over the last 7 seasons
PETITS FOURS is unraced drawn 8
LAOISE is unraced drawn 9
Either will do very well to win
Against two experienced horses
One of the market leaders should win

SHORTER SKIRT 6/4

AIM POWER 9/4

I'd happily bet both of these

£4,00 Win Shorter Skirt 6/4

£6.00 Win Aim Power 9/4-5/2

AIM POWER ran well on debut
The draw killed her chance there
But she showed a lot of talent
Reported to be Hannons 2nd best 2yo filly

This is one of those races
Where the market dictates the stake
I'd like to cover both of these horses
AIM POWER slightly just my preference
But there is room to bet both
Especially if betting on Betfair

Selection

£4.00 Win Shorter Skirt 6/4

£6.00 Win Aim Power 9/4 - 5/2

Ballinrobe 6.20

6/4 Perfect Tapatino, 6/1 Happy Company, 7/1 Chilled White,
8/1 Greenpanda, 10/1 Alpine Pass, 14/1 All The Mollies,
14/1 Fox Dream, 14/1 Global Pass, 16/1 Lomi's Law,
16/1 Realtin Geal, 16/1 Wavepoint, 20/1 Misty Millie,
25/1 Summer's Dream, 50/1 Kilcoran.

10f Handicap

PERFECT TAPATINO ran 4 days ago
It was his first run since November 2017
One of the biggest question in this race
Will this horse bounce after his last run
Having had 1 recent after a long break
Only the result will be able to tell us this

A slightly similar issue worries me
Not keen on inexperienced horses
With very recent runs in these races

August Handicaps
Any Distance
Any Class

Horses aged 4 or more
Under 7 career starts
Running within the last 5 days
Produced 4 winners
They all had 3 + runs that season
Those that did not were 0-20
PERFECT TAPATINO another to try
He may go and win easily
But none like him have in August
His profile raises question marks

There are a lot of other horses
That look vulnerable statistically

Alpine Pass is absent too long
All The Mollies is a filly absent 311 days
She has another problem as well
Look at all 10f races here since 2012
Horses drawn 11 or more
Have a 0-44 record in all of them
Global Pass has a bad draw in Stall 14

Realtin Geal has raced once in 8 months
Has a horrible ask going up 3 furlongs
Chilled White is a 3yo filly
She is inexperienced with 4 runs
Has raced just once in 96 days now
She has a lot to prove in a race like this
Lomi's Law is an older mare
She has not raced in 57 days now
Just a couple of runs in the last 9 months
I would need a safer profile than that
Fox Dream pulled up over hurdles last week
Not an encouraging profile for a filly

GREENPANDA does have positives
Wouldn't surprise me if she did win this
But she is not without some challenges
She is a filly dropping down over 3f
I can't find a similar horse doing that

HAPPY COMPANY ran 5 days ago
That was his second run this month
Thats more than any other horses offer
He only has to win a 0-60 handicap here
When he has a good draw and recent runs
His best numbers are over this distance
And on softer ground like today
Not easy to predict if we can rely on him
He is from a small stable after all
But he looks good enough to compete
And looks the safest profile in the race

Selection

HAPPY COMPANY 8/1

Each Way