AYR 2.30
5/2 Your Pal Tal, 4/1 Semana Santa,
5/1 Vallarta, 6/1 Brendan, Cheeni, 8/1 Allnite,
10/1 Silvana Maria, 14/1 House Of Cards,
25/1 Goninodaethat.
VALLARTA hasn't won for 14 months
He was rated as high as 72 back then
Now he has a rating of only 58
He is Topweight in a 0-55 handicap
He should be able to win a race this bad
He's been running himself fit this year
This is now his 6th run of the season
I am hoping he has reached fitness now
VALLARTA was well beaten last time
But he was eased once beaten
His rivals had the following official ratings
76 75 63 72 56 70
Today he only faces a 0-55
He shaped well at Wetherby before that
Prior to that at Hamilton badly drawn
His opposition look modest
YOUR PAL TAL is an 8yo
He has not raced in 68 days
He's raced once in only 122 days
He could easily be short of runs
SILVANA MARIA has an unfit profile
GONINODAETHAT is a 10yo
Just 4 runs this year with poor figures
Suggests he hasn't reached fitness
BRENDAN ran yesterday over 5f
Can't rule him out but unlikely winner
SEMATA SANTA is a mare from a 5f race
With a poor 1-26 strike rate she's beatable
CHEENI is another exposed older mare
She has a modest 1-28 career record
Her lifetime best Racing Post Rating is 52
That shows she is a very modest sprinter
But her numbers are consistently ordinary
HOUSE OF CARDS is a 3yo filly
Lightly raced starting huge prices
She just hasn't done enough yet
ALLNITE another lightly raced 3yo
Downgraded yard and a low scorer
VALLARTA may have too much for these
Selection
VALLARTA 3/1
Each Way
WORCESTER 3.20
11/8 Holryale, 15/8 Knighthood,
9/2 Ask Robin, 7/1 Play The Ace,
16/1 Rockinrolldixie.
2m 4f Novice Hurdle
HOLRYALE sets this standard
Won a 2m 4f Novice last time
Racing Post Hurdle Ratings
113 109 112 112 117 117
Should be enough to take this
When you consider his rivals
KNIGHTHOOD is a hurdling debutant
He is only a 4yo from a bumper
July has 194 Novice Hurdle
Run over any distance
Horses from bumpers were 4-125
Those aged 4 like him were 0-17
Hardly an encouraging profile
ASK ROBIN is unraced under rules
In 194 similar races in July
Unraced horses are 1-87
The 1 winner was older aged 7
Hard to bet an unraced 6yo
Against a last time hurdle winner
PLAY THE WAY is running badly
The favourite should win this
Selection
HOLRYALE 5/4
Win Bet
WINDSOR 5.40
7/2 Letmestopyouthere, 9/2 Essaka, 7/1 Aguerooo,
7/1 Time Medicean, 8/1 Impart, 10/1 Executor,
12/1 Black Truffle, 14/1 Mistry, Picket Line,
16/1 Perfect Pastime, Pretty Bubbles,
25/1 Ocean Temptress, Pharoh Jake.
6f Handicap
0-67 Class
Apprentice race
AGUEROOO is well treated
Whilst his best numbers are on sand
I don't see him as best on sand
His All weather rating is 84
His Grass rating is only 64
He has a 20lbs lower rating
He won his last 2 races as a 2yo
He won his first race as a 3yo
That left him badly handicapped
He was rated as high as 94 at that stage
Easy to understand what happened next
Hit a sustained losing run on sand + grass
AGUEROOO is now rated only 64
During 2017 he dropped from 94 to 74
During 2018 he dropped from 74 to 64
During these two years he was 1-19
Has only won a Claimer since 2017
But his mark has dropped 30lbs
If you look at his Racing Post Ratings
That were achieved only on Grass at 6f
67 61 78 84 79 64 67
They suggest a rating of 64 is lenient
I'd argue these horses lack fitness
Executor - Perfect Pastime - Time Medicean
Misty is running very low numbers
Pharoh Jake is wrong and a 10yo up in trip
Black Truffle is poor and better at 7f
Ocean Temptress is not fit or in form
Picket Line could pop up but unlikely
IMPART downgraded stables in 2018
Claimed form 6f his form isn't progressive
He is up in trip and no more than a small chance
PRETTY BUBBLES is well handicapped
But a 9yo mare hammered last time
Sweet and Sour profile
ESSAKA has a chance
But his numbers are consistently average
His Career best Racing Post Rating
Was a figure of 67 achieved back in 2015
Not impressive after a 49 race career
AGUEROOO did a 77 rating just 3 runs ago
LETMESTOPYOUTHERE has a chance
Strong claims on paper with some doubts
Both career wins and his best numbers
Come in small field races for starters
In fields of 7 or more
He has a 0-18 career record
No surprise as he is not a big horse
He may find this bigger field a problem
When you factor in he is Drawn 1
And has an 18yo Italian girl riding him
With just 3 races under her belt so far
He also has a 0-23 record over 6f
AGUEROOO looks ready to strike
Enough of his rivals are questionable
Selection
AGUEROOO 7/2
Each Way
ANGELS & OBSERVATIONS
Worcester 3.55
BEACH BREAK 2/1
He looks the safest choice
Maybe the only viable option
Tommy Hallinan a possible saver 4/1
Thats workable at 2/1 and 4/1
BEACH BREAK also appeals
In an each way double bet too
Windsor 8.10
Percentage bet in this 2yo Novice
KINGS SLIPPER 5/2 Each WAY
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