Statistical Analysis Wednesday 25th July

in #gambling7 years ago

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Lingfield 1.50

4/1 Vixen, 5/1 Percy Toplis, 11/2 Highland Pass,
6/1 Three Gracez, 13/2 Live Dangerously, 7/1 The Lords Walk,
12/1 Delicate Kiss, Soaring Spirits, 16/1 Major Assault,
20/1 Dukes Meadow, 25/1 Cadeaux Boxer.

Low grade 8f handicap
Given the surface is slow
I didn't want to commit to any filly
Such as VIXEN or THREE GRACEZ
Who were clearly short of recent runs
VIXEN won over 7f last time
She has to go up in trip and weight
With just a couple of runs this season
THREE GRACEZ only has the one run
When up in trip and she is an older mare

486 similar 8f handicaps July and August
Show horses aged 8 or more
Absent more than 6 weeks are 0-74
LIVE DANGEROUSLY has this problem
He is rejected aged 8 with 74 days off
Plenty of the bottomweights
Have a string of low numbers
Offering the most of all of these

THE LORDS WALK
HIGHLAND PASS

Difficult to split them
Or rely on each of them to perform

THE LORDS WALK is worth a saver

HIGHLAND PASS the main bet
Worth a small each way bet 8/1 +

I've stuck these in a multiple bet
Down at the foot of the message

Catterick 2.40

15/8 Go Annie Go, 5/2 Smashing Lass, 7/2 Bandola,
8/1 Liberty Diva, 12/1 Alhebaba, 16/1 Are You Locking Up,
25/1 The Fluter

2yo Seller over 6f
The main issue in this race
Can GO ANNIE GO who won last time
Against less experienced horses
Defy her penalty against 2 fillies
Who are up in trip against her
SMASHING LASS and BANDOLA

Statisticaly the answer is not clear
But both of these up in trip fillies
Get weight and have more improvement
And have already posted a Racing Post Rating
In excess of the favourites best number

I'd be inclined to side with these
SMASHING LASS + BANDOLA
Marginally prefered to the favourite
I would bet one and save on another
Both around 5/2 and 11/4
Perhaps go £3 win and £7 Win
Not opinion which should be the bet

Lingfield 3.20

5/2 Capla Gilda, 3/1 Solesmes, 4/1 Islay Mist,
9/2 Triple One, 8/1 Sharp And Sharper,
10/1 Sigwells Gold.

2yo Claimer over 6f

SIGWELLS GOLD is unraced
Happy to oppose her on debut
I'd like experience and recent runs
Ideally more than 3-4 runs

If you look at 2yo claimers
Run in July/August over 6f +
You find male horses with under 3 runs
Have a 0-46 record in them
SHARP AND SHARPER has this problem
He looks beatable with average numbers
CAPLA GILDA probably won't stay 6f
On a surface that is riding slow
One of 3 horses should win this
TRIPLE ONE is shortlistable
I'd rather take the two fillies
Who have more experience
And shorter absences as well
SOLESMES is a positive
ISLAY MIST is a positive
Both horses drop in class

Selection

£8 Win Bet SOLESMES 7/4- 2/1

£2 Win Bet ISLAY MIST 7/2

Leicester 6.00

5/2 Episcia, 7/2 Sigrid Nansen, 5/1 Moretti,
6/1 Greeneyedafghan, 7/1 Jenoow, 8/1 Still Got It,
16/1 Wajdy, 25/1 Krampus, 33/1 Foxangel

3yo Selling race
Statistics steer me in one direction
The horses with recent runs
Horses with absences have poor records

Jenoow would be 3rd choice
I think one of two should win
I'd make sure I couldn't lose
If either of these two horses win

MORETTI 100/30
EPISCIA 5/2

Naas 6.40

NATIONAL GLORY at 4/5
Seems very hard to oppose
With a recent run he should win

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You have a minor misspelling in the following sentence:

Marginally prefered to the favourite.
It should be preferred instead of prefered.