Hi,
Let me introduce myself quickly, because I am new here.
...
I am 37 years old founder of website called underdogchance.com, father of 3 year old girl and since 1998 I am connected with sports betting. I made every single mistake possible during my betting career, I lost money couple of times too, but this was always my passion. In the last year of the college I decided, that I will not finish my education, but I will do something else in my life. Civil engineering and water science was simply not my passion. But I still got some basic knowledge about statistics and math.
In the past I saw, that a lot of bettors don't use statistics at all and bookmakers became smarter and smarter. Python, R-statistics, programming languages,... are too complex for most people. And 95% of bettors are just sports fans and betting enthusiasts without such knowledge, who want to have fun and make some money. Because of that I decided, that I will show bettors how they can make statistics for themselves on a very simple way.
I create simple predictive models in google sheets/excel where I calculate my own odds and then I compare those odds with the bookmakers. I don't create an illusion, that I will make better prediction than bookmakers on every single game, but I can not imagine betting without numbers, statistics and the facts. If I look only at games, where there is enough big difference between my odds and their odds, I can make a profit. It is also always recommended to include all other information that we have.
With such betting model and blindly following basketball bets last season (excluding NBA) where the difference between my odds and bookmakers odds was at least 7 points for spread and 10 points for totals,
I made 392 picks from February 4th, 2017 – September 3rd, 2017
The record: 236 – 149 – 7 (61.30%)
Profit (1 unit/bet flat): +59.29 Units , Yield: +15.12%
I also created MLB baseball betting model, that has good results too:
Blindly following MLB model would make:
673 Picks
338 Wins
316 Losses
19 Pushes
+$4109
+3.17% of yield
The results are even better if we adjust the model little bit (playing only odds between 1.75 and 2.85 (Yield/ROI on 500 picks in 2017 = 12.24%).
I also create simple betting models for NHL, NBA, NFL and my plan is to create some for soccer too.
I call myself sports betting entrepreneur, rather than traditional handicapper, tipster, punter, gambler or just bettor. I look on sports betting as big business and investment opportunity. It is not just betting on sports, watching games, but many other things. I always try to improve, adopt to new situations and I am also huge fan of bitcoins, blockchain technology, which is coming in next years. Basically it is already here. I invest in cryptocurrencies, I created an online business with my website, but I don't sell picks.
My opinion on betting picks and following picks is, that this is wrong focus. In dynamic sports betting world, where the odds are changing quickly, where everything is much faster than 10 years ago, every minute can be crucial. I think bettors should focus on their knowledge and try to make their own bets. Most bettors don't make profit at all and that 2% of bettors, that make profit, most of them will not make yield (or ROI) more than 5%. Even me, myself, I know how hard I work on analysis every single day and sometimes I can not make a profit at all. So, it is not that easy job and I think that following other people's picks is not the best way to make money in sports betting. This is just my humble opinion on this topic and you can agree with me or not, but definitely you can do whatever you like. I am just here to share my opinions and what I do :-)
Because of bitcoin investment opportunity and my betting skills from the past (which is of course not a guarantee, that it will be successful in the future) I started my 5-year betting project to become a millionaire. It is a big challenge for me and all kind of things can happen on my journey, but we must dream big and we must set big goals. Hard work and positive thinking will help us at the end. I believe I will reach it.
And today I will share my NHL work with you:
We have 4 games tonight and I will share my estimated odds for those game and quick comments on those games.
Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs
Calgary Flames and Toronto will play their second game this season and in the first game Toronto beat Calgary on the road by 4-1. Toronto is much better overall team this season and I give them 63.56% of chance in this game. According to current odds by bookmakers, there is small value on Toronto.
It is also very interesting, that this Calgary have hard time playing in Toronto in recent games. They lost 13 out of 16 meetings there. This is also Canadian derby and when those two teams met in the past, home team is 20-6 in last 26 meetings.
The only question for today's game is Tyler Bozak, who could miss this game, but he is not such an important factor here.
Current bookmakers odds are around 2.37 on Calgary and 1.66 (-152) on Toronto. My fair odds on Toronto are at around 1.57 (-174) and there is small value with them.
Lean Toronto Maple Leafs -174
Chicago Blackhawks at Washington Capitals
This is probably most interesting game tonight with a lot of very good players. The odds surprisingly dropped on Chicago during the day, despite public will be more on Washington. And there is a reason for that. Washington will play without T.J. Oshie who was injured in last game. But despite this loss, I think Washington is still enough good to beat Chicago here.
First of all Washington will play with their best goalie Holtby and Chicago will play with their backup goalie. Washington is winning team, they are very strong at home and they have very good record against Chicago.
You can check my whole analysis on this game HERE
Lean Washington -130
Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers
We have two struggling teams here and the odds dropped slightly on Edmonton during the day, but I would be very careful if you like to play Edmonton here.
First of all Edmonton is playing without their best goalie Cam Talbot and they will start with Brossoit, who is their second goalie and has SV% of only 0.872. And this is not all, Connor McDavid, their best player and maybe the best young player in the world had some problems with illness. He is upgraded to play this game, but I don't know how ready he is. So, we have Edmonton that is playing without their best goalie and their best player will play, but had some health problems.
Philadelphia on the other side just ended huge losing streak by beating Calgary on the road. I still think, that they are much better team and they can show us much more. But they also have bad record playing in Edmonton, losing 6 out of last 7 games there. My projected odds on Philadelphia are +113 and this is exactly same than bookmakers odds. I don't see any value playing any team here, but if I need to pick a team, I would go with the Flyers.
Lean Philadelphia Flyers +113
Ottawa Senators at Anaheim Ducks
This is the game, that I like the most. I have projected, that Ottawa will have around 62.19% of chance to win this game and my fair odds on this game are -164 (1.61). I expect that bookmakers pay me at least $61 if I win a bet with Ottawa. But according to current prices on bookmakers market, I can get Ottawa at -110 and that means, that they will pay me $91 for my bet of $100 on Ottawa. At the start of the day, you could get Ottawa for plus money, but bookmakers dropped the odds during the day. But I think you can get the best odds on them still on some bitcoin bookmakers (check my favourite bitcoin sportsbooks here).
I like Ottawa here because of couple of reasons. First of all Anaheim is playing without couple of key players. They are not rested for this game, because they played yesterday in Vegas where they lost at the end, despite they were leading most of the game. I also think, that this is not the best for their confidence and momentum. If we check their last games, where they have zero rest days between games, they went 4-10 in last 14 games. In other words, they lost 10 out of 14 games on 0 days. Ottawa on the other side had 2 days rest and they will try to bounce back after huge loss in Winnipeg. They will probably play without their best scorer Stone, but I think that they have more problems in defence, because they allow to many goals. Yes, he is important scorer, but if he will miss this game and if they step up defensively, I think this could be good.
Both teams have losing record, but at least Ottawa is plying better on the road. They are 6-6 on the road and betting on the on the road would make you a profit of +1.2 units, while Anaheim will make a loss (-4.6 units) if you bet on them constantly at home.
From my perspective, from betting perspective and from my betting model perspective I think we have a value with Ottawa Senators tonight.
Lean: Ottawa Senators -110
Good Luck whatever you play today.
Really solid post !
You'll see that it's not easy to get noticed on steemit. This post would have been perfect to use the introduceyourself tag which tends to get nice attention. It would be nice if @welcoming could pick this one up!
** I rarely resteem posts, but this deserves one!
Thank you for recommending this post to me for resteeming, take this small upvote as reward :)
Welcome to steemit :)
When I started reading this post, I was about to click it away since it seemed to just be advertisement for your website. However I stayed and it was worth it. I think you are not providing an illusion to get a quick fortune with crazy bets and you rather see it something you can do with a strategy. You also state that most people loos a lot of money betting. These realistic and well done statements, as well as you sharing your predictions here, have got me to upvote with 100% and resteeming this post via @welcoming where I share promising newcomer, congratz :)
Greets!
PS.: I think you would profit from adding a picture of you to this post - since you have one on your linked website, I guess privacy ain't the issue!
I totally agree with your comment :)
I was thinking the same in the first place but it turned out interesting.
Thanks guys for all your kind words. I am still lost learning how it works in steemit and I will look to provide quality content here.
Oh, by the way,...yes, of course I can link my picture here, I will do it, but need to take picture with "STEEMIT" . Will do it today. Thanks
Great idea! Be sure to edit it in your main post :)
I did it. I hope I did it right :-)
I worked for a company that crawls the web and collects sports betting odds - txodds.com. You probably know about it, but just in case.
I totally agree on how following others is very difficult these days by the way, breaking down why exactly is one of the things I have on my list to write about.
Yes, I have couple articles abut this topic, but I have also on my list to write one more just focusing on this problem. In the past, the line movement was slow. But right now with the internet, bookmakers change the odds every minute if they want. And we all know, that the odds are very important. And if you make more than 1000 bets per year, 1.91 or 1.95 can be big difference.
You sound refreshingly reasonable @underdogchance :)
Upvote and follow you.
Thanks :-)
If you are interested in NHL, you can check my NHL contest!
I'm new here but I just want to say that it's a fascinating post. Have you read a book by Michael Konik called The Smart Money? It describes something close to what you're doing now. If you've not read the book, I recommend it. Good luck to you too.
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STOPGreat post buddy! Proud of everything you do...
Thanks my friend :-)