It's my first post in a while. I suffered a big loss using too much leverage and spent the last year revamping my strategy. So far in 2019, all of my accounts are up modestly by controlling leverage, and focusing on sentiment and cycle counts.
This post is regarding the Fibonacci Fan tool that I used to call the gold breakout in May. Due to the near vertical rise in silver a few weeks ago, I decided to get out of my long positions and buy some small puts on GDX. We are also cyclically timed for a drop in gold and sentiment got way out of hand.
To top it all off, we hit the next major fib fan resistance level 76.4.
As you can see, every time we touch one of these fan levels, the price churns for a while, testing and retesting until we finally get a breakout. This fan runs from the 2011 top to the 2015 bottom.
I expect price to churn down, completing an ABC pattern to wash out sentiment and get everyone bearish. My minimum short target is gold price 1450, and possibly as low as 1380. I think this would clear sentiment enough to launch the next wave up towards 1700-1800.
Interestingly, the 1700-1800 price range is the upper range of the next fib fan resistance level when charted from the 2000 low to the 2011 high. We have been locked in this range since 2015.
I plan on being more active with my posting and even got some software so that I can record videos while looking at charts.
Please let me know what you think will happen.