Tough to say, what is hapening with gold price... Technical analysis is a self fullfilling prophecy, if enough people believe in it it is going to happen probably, like religion a little bit.
What we can say is that when great uncertainty is present on the markets investors flee into gold and what is to be considered safe currencies as swiss francs for example.
(Sometimes also Crypto, see the Cyprus financial crysis pushing btc to alltime highs)
Not all the money coming out of cryptos will come into Gold.
Second lets take Marketvolume, it's 3 Billion $ per day for Ethereum and BTC combined at the moment according to coinmarketcap.
Price tends to be very unstable, this means a fracture of the market cap will be converted into cash if a huge sell of is going to happen. Thus calculation with market cap is unrealistic actually since it will change when huge sell offs happen in speculative investments (which crypto is atm).
The average daily trading volume of Gold from major Bullion Banks (HSBC, ICBC Standard Bank, JP Morgan, Scotiabank and UBS) was 27.3 Billion $ at the end of Jan 2017.
This doesn't even put other banks from other countries into account.
All the physical Gold that is existant on earth is estimated at 163 000 000 kg, (probably much higher). The Price per KG is 38.964,45 USD today. Multiplied with each other we have a Market Cap of 6.351 Trillion USD (this is only for physical available Gold and doesn't put into account that usually there are more Oz of Virtual Gold for each real existant one)
Also it tends to be way more stable in price due to historic reasons.
Crypto sell off influencing gold price, unlikely...
If you still believe in Gold at the Moment and want to protect yourself from crypto sell offs, there is an exchange service called vaultoro with physical gold stored in switzerland.
You can exchange your BTC against Gold there.
Excellent analysis thank you 100% upvoted!! So can you apply your analytics the other way around. Let's say 5% of the money in GOLD goes into crypto what does that do to the market cap of crypto then 🙏🏻😁
Also I agree with your outlook on TA! Mass psychology! But in this case we only need to break that upside line of the triangle, so with volatility in crypto And the possible summer selloff could be that self for filling prophecy and you speak of ....?
In general the smartest way for me would be to analyse fundamentals and then act accordingly. In my oppinion wealth is created long term (over years). No one is an oracle and no one knows which direction a stock or an asset will go short term (except you have valuable insider information)
When there is very low fundamental information available technical analysis becomes more important (as we can see in some cryptos that appear to only act upon technical analysis). Also technical analysis is difficult, you can draw a line in much different ways. We in the western world use Trendlines, EMAs or SMAs, RSI, Bollinger Bands etc. Japanese for example like to use Ichimoku clouds.
There is a ton of indicators, which ones are you going to use? Which ones is the majority of people going to use that trade the asset? In the end its all mass psychology.
Also an important fundamental news triggering panic sell/buy will destroy any technical analysis.
I would analyse fundamentals to determine the general trend and also the potential of the asset/stock in the future. Then take technical analysis as a helping tool to verify my decission if it is a good choice to buy in/sell.
Gold is an asset (it doesn't produce anything) and acted as a store of wealth for a long time. Gold historically tends to preserve its value over time (speaking of very long periods ---> 2000 years or so). I would store some of my assets in physical form and not touch it for a long time in case some crysis happens.
If you are scared of market uncertainty or you suspect it to happen you can buy gold as well to evade this. Gold price could be a victim of price manipulation as well since it is the indicator of how scared people are and sometimes people are not wanted to be scared since this will inflict more mass panic sells.
I would buy Gold only for storing wealth and not speculation purposes.
We got crypto for that :D
That said I believe in general that the gold price rather tends to go up then to go down at the moment. But this is only my own humble oppinion.
nice work!!