There's no way to know what the savings APY will be, but it will most likely be less than what it is now.
$HIVE Power represents a 13-week lock-up, so it should be more desirable than a 3.5-day lock-up.
That’s one of the arguments @starkerz has been making, that the current 3.5-day APY is way too high. He’s been suggesting 12%.
Although I agree the number should and likely will be lower than what it currently is, I don’t think we should reduce the number until we can offer longer term bonds at or near the current rate.
My main concerns are that it is not yet clear when the bond system will be ready. it could be 6 months, it could be 18 months, it could be longer. With that being the case, it is important to:
a) begin to help the rest of the community understand that 20% APR for a 3.5 day lock is is asking too much, and is not requiring enough skin in the game for such high APR returns
b) begin the process of the community considering more realistic APR rates based on realistic lock-in times, for when the technology is available
c) Hope that the community understands that it will have to face the shock either way, be it now. by lowering rates, or later by increasing lock in time and lowering rates
d) Hope that the community understands that it is unreasonable to expect such high APR while putting the risk on other community members
e) Hope that the community understands that it is realistic to move the risk of such high APR to speculators, and lower the risk and the counter party risk to the community by moving it to layer II collateralised bond loans
f) Hope that the community understands that there is a difference between HBD that is created as APR inflation that is not pre backed and HBD that is created first by purchasing Hive off the open market and then converted to HBD, and that the latter is far safer for the community
Also, i do not think suggesting a reverse auction to set the interest rates is too complicated. This is standard practice and is used all over the world for decades, centuries even.
in conclusion, since it is not yet clear when the bond system will be implemented, it is better to take the side of caution and at least not come to expect the APR to be 20% for a lock in of 3.5 days.
In my opinion, we are safer lowering the APR now based on the fact that we do not yet know when bonds will be available, when everyone will have to take the shock of increasing their lock and likely lowering their APR anyway.
This being the case, i see it a good idea to being lowering the APR now, incase it runs us into problems between now and the time that the bond system is implemented.
Yes, you’ve mostly convinced me.
If there were already multiple millions of $HBD in savings at the 20% rate, then I’d caution against lowering it until you give those investors a suitable alternative.
However, given the uncertainty about timing for actual bonds, it might be better to lower the rate now, so as not to risk disaffecting a large swath of investors sometime in the future.
It’s a shock one way or another