Thank you for showing me the errors which I have made in the last post 😀
I have been silly and feel as if I have let some of my followers down by first, being downvoted by Bernie, second, by making actual factual mistakes in my post, thank you for not slandering me and saying I'm full of shit in this post :)
I will have to aplogize on me and Jockey's behalf on the factual mistake and will edit that immediately (even linking to your post).
I am open to critcism always and will correct my mistakes if I see fit, I agree with what you have said.
ALSO, I would like to point out that I'm not an anti-vaxxer who will feel self righteous and not correct my mistake, I do not want anyone on Steemit thinking anti-vaxxers are barbaric by any means.
In my island of Bali many of the tourists came originally for a week, but end up staying for years, making visa runs to neighboring asian countries so it may be more feasible here.
Thank you again for your correction and do keep your children away from me, I'm flattered 🙏
Glad you accepted your errors and that you even linked to this post 👍
At least most of them probably are not. I believe most of them are just doing what they think is the best for their and their kids health. However that still doesn't mean they are right.
Who I really have no respect for however, are those, who will just say everything is corrupt and don't even consider thinking about any serious scienctific studies. Some are just ignorant people who are pretty much against everything. Some even are probably just anti-vaxx because it is cool in certain communities and they get popular by shouting loud against the corrup pharma industry.
You seem to be a young guy who wants to learn - this is great keep it up. Google selection bias and really think about that concept. It's one of the biggest problems when dealing with the tons of information the internet offers to everybody - If you are not careful, you will find followers and others for every shitty idea you can even imagine.
I don't have numbers - But i doubt that so many people don't travel back home, that it effects the effect in any significant way.
While you clearly show you aren't too proud to admit mistakes with this comment, your math was correct to begin with.
All 7.4M tourists impact herd immunity, and aren't part of the herd, so cannot be added to the calculation as @theaustrianguy has done. You are too humble, and unsure of yourself, apparently.
Any disease tourists brought with them, even if they only came overnight, could be communicated to the herd. All 7.4M of them do impact herd immunity, as you originally calculated.
None of them are checked for vaccinations, so none of them can be considered to contribute to herd immunity, and this is why they cannot be added to the population of the Australian herd.
Not being a scientist, it is easy to accept declarations from them that claim to be. This is a danger, and I hope you learn from this not to accept reliance on authority to override your own understanding.
You need to retract your retraction, cuz you were right the first time.
Of course it could be communicated to the herd. But herd immunity - at least in the most common understanding - is not about how likely a disease is brought to the herd. It is about how fast and how good a disease can spread in a herd once somebody from the herd has the disease.
There are also unvaccinated people within the herd. So why should not being check for vaccination automaticly put you out of the herd?
Either you are there at the time the disease is trying to spread --> you are part of the relevant herd, or you are not there --> you are not part of the relevant herd.
The concept doesn't care about who you are and where you are from. It only cares about how many of the indivduals being there are at that time are immune and how many are not.
One critical factor to herd immunity is that of vector. Immunized herd members are reckoned unable to transmit the disease. Therefore, adding a substantial attack vector of potentially infected persons to the 'edge' of the herd, as happens with tourists, directly impacts herd immunity negatively.
Granted. I was incorrect. Thanks for pointing it out.
This is why the tourists aren't part of the herd. Since they are only temporarily present, they do not contribute - other than as potential vectors of infection of the herd - to epidemic.
Thanks for your substantive reply!