To be honest, I expected something from HardFork 21 to reduce the number of content creators, and increase the number of curators, but not this way/not like this. This will be good probably only for the whales, and maybe for the dolphins. By doing this, they will probably reduce both the number of content creators and the number of curators as well. Basically the number of active users, which is already low and getting lower and lower nowadays almost every day.
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Yes, I think they are being encouraged to move into tribes/communities. So long as their voting activity remains in rshares/steem and is not wholly in tokens, then that may not be so bad, but I don't see many tribe-tokens able to fully hold on to their value.
And yes, blockchain activity as measured by the reward pool has been dropping quite sharply for the last 2 weeks.