The conclusion is very subjective and the actual analysis was considerably longer than I published here. Even this post is really too long for this environment in my opinion. The British and America question and also the multiple scenarios made the analysis rather long winded even trying to be concise in this post. Some of the figures that I was working from are listed in my reply to @anarcho-andrei, you may find that they add a little light.
I'm glad that you enjoyed the piece, you might like some of the books that I listed, although Sterberg, being an economist is fairly heavy going at times. You know, you should always attend History classes, they're the best courses at uni (dependent upon your tutor of course).