I agree - I prefer the S2F model as well! Logarithmic regression still quite convincing though because it's essentially just an extrapolation of all the historic price data projected into the future
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I agree - I prefer the S2F model as well! Logarithmic regression still quite convincing though because it's essentially just an extrapolation of all the historic price data projected into the future
There is merit to logarithmic regression model but what it predicts is that the delay between the halving events and the subsequent price rallies get longer as time progresses. The s2f model only predicts that the price oscillation will attenuate. I suppose it makes sense to assume there will be a delay as well. The 2016 halving was on July 9. Bitcoin topped out on December 18 2017. That's one year and a little over five months. This year's halving will take place some time in early May. If the delay is the same, Bitcoin should top out late October to early November 2021 according to the s2f model. I'm hoping the big rally will be too obvious to miss. It was during both of the previous cycles.