Standings
End Week 5
End Week 10
So a clear thing that can be seen here is that there has been some regression to the mean, Dender who were way out of their league in 1st place fell back to place 7 taking 4 more points. However, they still managed to beat their closing lined going 3W-2L for +20.8% ROI.
On the other side, some of the top teams who were lagging like Antwerp (11) & AA Gent (12) managed to climb to spot 2 & 3. Antwerp against the asian handicap went and impressive 4W-0L-1P¨while Gent went 3W-0L-2P even though I feel it's at least partly due to good luck on their side.
Coach Changes
There have been 2 coach changes so far with Stvv who got Mazzu in week 7 followed by a 3W-0L-1P against the asian handicap, Anderlecht switched coach in week 8 followed by a 1W-1.5L-0.5P against the asian handicap despite doing quite ok playing better than before.
Overall Stats
| Week 1-5 | Week 6-10 |
|---|---|
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The trend of home teams and under doing well continued while the favorites now flipped compared to the first 5 weeks.
Best Teams against Asian Handicap
| Team | W1-5 | W6-10 |
|---|---|---|
| Dender | +72.25% ROI | +20.80% ROI |
| OH Leuven | +43.28% ROI | -60.80% ROI |
| Anderlecht | +28.60% ROI | -31.67% ROI |
| Standard | +16.50% ROI | -4.80% ROI |
| Mechelen | +14.50% ROI | +44.50% ROI |
| Westerlo | +10.0% ROI | -14.60% ROI |
| Charleroi | +8.17% ROI | +5.70% ROI |
| Sint-Truiden | +0.67% ROI | +65.90% ROI |
| Genk | -4.00% ROI | +19.50% ROI |
| Kortrijk | -11.17% ROI | -10.60% ROI |
| Antwerp | -12.33% ROI | +70.80% ROI |
| AA Gent | -19.80% ROI | +55% ROI |
| Club Brugge | -34.83% ROI | -12.80% ROI |
| Cercle Brugge | -39.20% ROI | -100% ROI |
| Union | -44.08% ROI | -29.10% ROI |
| Beerschot | -67.17% ROI | -59% ROI |
Looking at this, 3 out of the top 4 got a correction and went into a negative record while all 4 of the bottom teams stayed in a negative ROI without any sign of it slowing down. Aside from this, I don't really see any trends to go by.
Highest Goals Team against Asian Total
| Team | Week 1-5 | Week 6-10 |
|---|---|---|
| Dender | +38.25% ROI | -15.20% ROI |
| Beerschot | +23.17% ROI | +84.40% ROI |
| Westerlo | +20.83% ROI | +45.00% ROI |
| Genk | +11.40% ROI | +2.70% ROI |
| Sint-Truiden | -1.33% ROI | -23.80% ROI |
| Mechelen | -2.17% ROI | -23.00% ROI |
| Cercle Brugge | -3.40% ROI | -32.80% ROI |
| Anderlecht | -34.00% ROI | -22.20% ROI |
| Charleroi | -35.83% ROI | -30.60% ROI |
| Club Brugge | -37.08% ROI | -31.40% ROI |
| Union | -38.50% ROI | -70.50% ROI |
| Kortrijk | -39.00% ROI | -22.00% ROI |
| Antwerp | -41.67% ROI | -20% ROI |
| AA Gent | -42.60% ROI | -31.0% ROI |
| OH Leuven | -68.00% ROI | +5.60% ROI |
| Standard | -100% ROI | -13.40% ROI |
It very much looks like the trend where totl lines are set too high continued. Aside from this, 3 of the 4 teams that were positive on the overs remained positive
Hidden Divergence
One of the things I also look at is possible hidden divergence where the overall stats are a mix of extreme stats on home/away/over/under which oppose themselves. This at times can create an edge. From a quick look these are standing out.
| Team | Home Over | Away over |
|---|---|---|
| Kv Mechelen W1-5 | +95.67% | -100% |
| Kv Mechelen W6-10 | +28.33% | -100% |
This tends to be quite a strong trend and a good spot for odds to be set wrong which showed as the trend pretty much continued.
Full 10 Week Standing
| Team | ROI |
|---|---|
| Dender | +42.55% ROI |
| Antwerp | +28.00% ROI |
| Sint-Truiden | +27.80 % ROI |
| Mechelen | +20.15%ROI |
| Charleroi | +17.75% ROI |
| Standard | +17.50% ROI |
| Genk | +13.20% ROI |
| AA Gent | +7.60% ROI |
| Westerlo | +3.70% ROI |
| Kortrijk | -7.00% ROI |
| Anderlecht | -10.80% ROI |
| OH Leuven | -14.05% ROI |
| Union | -31.00% ROI |
| Club Brugge | -36.60% ROI |
| Cercle Brugge | -49.50% ROI |
| Beerschot | -59.80% ROI |
That's it for now. The main takeaway I would say is that I will start putting way more importance and notice on the hidden divergences. I'll be back on Friday with more previews and bets for week 11 and onwards.
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@tipu curate
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