I am a bit jaded too. Too many highs that didnt stay, but I am ok with that. I dont believe that Hive is going to replace Facebook. I dont know why exactly, but I tend to think Hive will continue on as a niche blogging site, and that is just a bit disappointing.
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My idealistic self is disappointed, for sure... but yes, this will probably always be a niche social venue. Still, even back in 2005, social blogging sites like Xanga had as many as 30 million active blogs... even that would be a massive victory for Hive.