Pakistan, my current thoughts:
7 June 2022
It is a terrible situation.
I think Khan would win the election, but the government knows that if they don't submit to western interests then the USA affiliated Taliban and allied extremists will tear the nation apart and trigger an international operation to disarm Pakistan. Of course, as Khan has predicted, disarmament and balkanization is likely to occur anyway. Politicians just prefer to keep their job as long as possible.
I wish I knew how to help, but I don't know.
Something I don't understand is why there is a conflict between Khan and the Pakistan army. I have been told that the army is the government; perhaps it is that simple. Can you explain it?
If Khan and the army could form an alliance it may be wise to expand the army and establish a firm police presence throughout the country so that the international community could not use terrorism against Pakistan. Of course all governments are corrupt and the people would quickly come to regret such a powerful police presence. In this light the division between Khan and the military could actually be fortuitous. Absent the option of cooperation, he is free from the temptation. Instead, once elected, Khan could liberalize private security and gamble that a free market could establish peace more reliably than the government. Coupled with a security service stipend or voucher paid to all citizens the people could purchase the security that they want. By empowering the people and the market the western threat would at least be forced to reassess and react. In that environment Khan should still seek to form ties with the army, but they could focus on matters of territorial integrity.
Although a security voucher program would be quite expensive, it would create a lot of jobs and the promise of increased security could be sold to the Chinese to raise the initial funding for the program.
If the western funded extremists are suppressed by a robust private security industry then Pakistan and the Pakistan army could actually work with the Taliban to complete TAPI. Those cooperative activities could undermine western influence in Afghanistan and transform a threat into an ally. Then, having removed the leverage against Pakistan, the government could be courted away from the west. Once the government is reformed to serve Pakistani interests instead of the interests of western oil companies then Pakistan coulld tax the flow of Turkmenistan oil through Pakistan and use the profits to settle international debts and develop crucial security infrastructure. The freedom pipeline from Iran could even be opened and that second source of oil to India might be a bargaining chip to improve the relationship with India.
I am a distant observer so this armchair analysis is probably flawed. I will not be offended if you correct me. In fact I would prefer to be corrected so that I may learn.
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