Predictions for New Hampshire are substantially more challenging than Iowa. My predictions for Iowa were remarkably accurate, you can read them here: https://inleo.io/@alohaed/election-2024-republican-iowa-caucus-predictions
The calculus for New Hampshire is more complex despite the race narrowing to two candidates. Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out January 15 and endorsed Trump. Chris Christie is out. Today on January 21, Ron DeSantis dropped out and endorsed Trump.
The choice is now binary, Trump and MAGA or Haley and a form of regressive NeoConservatism. A Nikki Haley administration, would be in many ways a third term for George W. Bush.
**My prediction is that Trump will take 55% of the vote and Haley will take 45%. **Most of Haley's recent support is synthetic, purchased by large money establishment donors attempting to thwart Trump. Haley isn't the type of candidate who commands a passionate group of followers. Recent polls show that approximately 69% of registered voters prefer Trump. Haley's support comes from a small minority of Republicans and undeclared (independent voters).
If Haley takes less than 40% of the New Hampshire it will be challenging for her to secure additional funding, and her campaign begins to lose inertia there. How ever Haley finishes on Tuesday night expect the legacy media to frame it as a strong performance. Legacy media pundits detest Trump and will promote anyone in opposition to him. The influence of cable news pundit has degraded substantially in the past few years, and it's magnitude of effect is proportionately diminished.
The South Carolina Republican Primary will be the death knell for Haley's campaign (if she doesn't cede earlier). Haley was a two-term Governor in South Carolina and when Trump defeats her there, it will be manifestly clear Haley no chance of winning the nomination.
I'll update Wednesday morning to either take a bow, or take my lumps for an errant prediction.
Posted Using InLeo Alpha
Posted Using InLeo Alpha