Hive is a content-centered blockchain, so the key metric of actual long-term success, is the quality of content.
I think it's fair to say that the average posting quality on Hive is very bad. And the bad posts on Hive drive quality down even further by drowning out good posts, leading to a mismanaged rewards system.
This post is earning as much as many average makeup tutorials. Do the high-stake voters on these tutorials even wear makeup? No. This is the sign of a broken ecosystem
I know this blockchain styles itself as censorship resistant, which it inherently always will be, but if Hive wants to succeed then there will have to be applications with selective membership.
Content is a big part of Hive but it's a little more than that. The most successful DApp is Splinterlands, which is a game. Microblogging is becoming more popular as well. I believe Hive is flexible enough to morph towards whatever is demanded of it. Will be interesting to see what it is like here in 5 years time.
The entire marketcap for gaming is apparently under 200 billion dollars. The marketcap for social is dramatically larger & (D)PoS is the future of social (don't you agree?).
Hive is a lot of things, but insofar as Hive is social, it'll need to create a quality platform. If it doesn't, ETH2 sure will.
I agree, the social aspect of Hive has more potential to be huge. The key might not necessarily be quality. I think it has more to with what's popular. For example, that could be sharing cartoon drawings of a comic cat. I think having communities, tribes, and different DApps can make it easier for people to focus on what they really enjoy. I tend to write long posts but that's not for everyone. Therefore, my content might be more suited to a DApp focused on elaborate content.