Does China have the upper hand in this battle?
First of all China is NOT only reliant on exports to the US. As of 2024 only 14.7 percent of Chinese export finds its way to the United States market. That's about $554 billion.
China noticed very quickly that being too reliant on one country (especially a country like the United States that continuously attacks, sanctions, and tariffs others) would be way too risky. So what did China do? They diversified their economy.
China currently trades more with South East Asian countries and other Asian countries than the United States of America.
China also has close relations with 52 nations in Africa, China leads trade in the Middle East and vast majority of developing countries around the globe.
Meanwhile can the United States of America quickly adjust without Chinese manufacturing.
United States houses are filled with many products that are Made in China. If Trump doesn't immediately reverse positions (which we know he won't ) then this will be a major problem for the US economy.
American consumers may boost purchasing power.
But can China’s economy handle losing the American market that 14.7% is huge for a country that is very export based. Will their economy crash? No but will be greatly affected.
China has been reducing it's exports to USA every year, it's trade with ASEAN already higher than USA, more EU countries will move closer to China because of this. But can they quickly replace the US market